Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November
538 tracked congressional and downballot primary races in the Keystone State.
Pennsylvania is already in the thick of campaign season for November's presidential and U.S. Senate races, but on April 23, Democrats and Republicans in the Keystone State chose their candidates in a slate of other consequential races down the ballot this fall.
Among the key races to watch: a couple of incumbent House members — progressive Democrat Summer Lee and moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick — both fended off challengers from their right, and ballots are now set for a few other consequential contests that could help determine control of the House next year. Plus, some key battle lines for control of the state government in November are set, with the parties finalizing their candidates for attorney general, auditor, treasurer and both chambers of the state legislature.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
- Last big projections of the evening: McClelland secures the treasurer upset
- Republican Jeffrey Olsommer on track to win Pennsylvania's only special election
- Mackenzie projected to win PA-07 and take on Rep. Susan Wild
- DePasquale projected to win the Democratic AG primary
- Stelson projected to win Democratic primary in 10th District
The 12th District Democratic primary will test The Squad’s strength
In the Pittsburgh-based 12th District, progressive Rep. Summer Lee could be vulnerable against Edgewood Borough Council member Bhavini Patel in the Democratic primary. Two years ago, in her first bid for this seat, Lee only won her primary by less than a point. And Patel's challenge has turned into a referendum on Lee's party bona fides. Behind this is Lee's membership in The Squad, a group of progressive House Democrats who've often been at odds with party leaders. This has been especially apparent in the intraparty debate over the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, most recently demonstrated by The Squad joining with about one-sixth of House Democrats in voting against foreign aid to Israel.
Lee's critics have often portrayed her as more dogmatic than pragmatic, a theme Patel's campaign has played up by arguing that Lee wants to undermine Biden and the Democratic Party. She has run ads attacking Lee for opposing the Biden administration and criticized Lee's support for the "uncommitted" movement in the presidential primary that wants Biden to adopt a less pro-Israel stance. Lee has countered by emphasizing her ability to bring federal investment to the district and her pro-choice record. Her campaign has also criticized "Republican-funded super PACs" for meddling — a reference to Patel's backing from Moderate PAC, a group mostly funded by a GOP donor, and the potential influence of the bipartisan American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has said it might spend $100 million against progressives this cycle.
Heading into the primary, Lee probably has the upper hand. We have no polls, but Lee had outraised Patel nearly 4-to-1 ($2.3 million to $602,000) as of April 3. Meanwhile, outside spending has run about even, according to OpenSecrets. Surprisingly, though, AIPAC's super PAC has not spent money against Lee despite investing $3.9 million to stop her in the 2022 primary. That may mean that AIPAC thinks Patel can't win, that she already has sufficient support and/or that support associated with AIPAC could harm Patel more than help her.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Listen to the 538 Politics podcast while you’re waiting for results!
It'll still be a little while before full results start rolling in from Pennsylvania, and, in the meantime, allow me to suggest some easy listening. Yup, it's the 538 Politics podcast!
On Monday's episode we previewed a couple of tonight's races in Pennsylvania and talked about the state's significance come November. We also considered whether House Speaker Mike Johnson can last as something of a coalitional speaker, frequently relying on votes from Democrats to get legislation passed. And lastly, we tested our knowledge of what Americans think about climate change, according to the polls. Give it a listen!
—Galen Druke, 538
Welcome!
Happy primary day to those who celebrate! (That's us, fellow Pennsyvlanians.)
The Keystone State is already in the public eye this election cycle, as it's expected to be a battleground state for both the presidential race and a critical U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and Republican David McCormick. And there are consequential races down the ballot, too: Several competitive U.S. House races could impact the balance of the House majority, while Democrats are hoping to compete for control of both chambers of the state legislature to earn their first state government trifecta in more than 30 years.
And while the candidates for president and Senate are set, today's primary contests will determine just who's on the ballot from each party in those key down ballot races. Tonight, we're closely tracking a handful of significant U.S. House races, including progressive Rep. Summer Lee's bid to hold off a more moderate challenger; moderate Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick's challenge from the hard right; and a three-way GOP primary to decide who will face off against Rep. Susan Wild in one of the most competitive House races this fall. We've also got our eyes on some hotly contested primary contests for statewide offices like attorney general and a number of spicy state legislative races.
As usual, we'll be here to guide you through it all with the latest results and analysis throughout the evening. We should start seeing results come in shortly after polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. Thanks for joining us!
—Tia Yang, 538
Pennsylvania is a key presidential battleground
With Biden and Trump having sewn up their party's nominations, the Pennsylvania presidential primary is an afterthought today. But the Keystone State will definitely be at the forefront of the general election campaign: In 2016, Trump carried it by 0.7 percentage points, and in 2020, Biden won it by 1.2 points, making Pennsylvania one of the most competitive states in the country. And with 19 electoral votes, the state is the largest battleground-state prize in the Electoral College (if you don't include Florida, which has 30 electoral votes but may have a GOP lean now).
Early polling for the November election confirms the expectation that Pennsylvania will once again feature a hard-fought campaign. 538 hasn't released its general election polling averages yet — they're coming very soon — but Trump and Biden are running close to even in recent polls. The most recent one we have, a mid-April survey from Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research/Fox News, found them tied at 48 percent, with Trump edging ahead by 2 points when third-party candidates like Robert Kennedy Jr. were included as options.
Given Pennsylvania's importance, it's no surprise that both Biden and Trump are heavily focused on it. Biden just completed a campaign swing through the state last week, including a stop at his childhood home of Scranton. Just days earlier, Trump held a campaign rally in the Lehigh Valley ahead of the start of his hush-money trial in New York City. There'll certainly be more of that in Pennsylvania — and a gazillion attack ads on television and digital airwaves — before Election Day.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538