Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November

538 tracked congressional and downballot primary races in the Keystone State.

Pennsylvania is already in the thick of campaign season for November's presidential and U.S. Senate races, but on April 23, Democrats and Republicans in the Keystone State chose their candidates in a slate of other consequential races down the ballot this fall.

Among the key races to watch: a couple of incumbent House members — progressive Democrat Summer Lee and moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick — both fended off challengers from their right, and ballots are now set for a few other consequential contests that could help determine control of the House next year. Plus, some key battle lines for control of the state government in November are set, with the parties finalizing their candidates for attorney general, auditor, treasurer and both chambers of the state legislature.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Stelson is likely to win the Democratic nomination in the 10th District

In Pennsylvania's 10th District, where several Democrats were in today’s primary, former evening news anchor Janelle Stelson is currently leading with 48 percent of the expected vote in. Stelson has backing from EMILY’s List, which is historically a good sign. According to our analysis of the 2022 primaries, 85 percent of candidates endorsed by EMILY’s List’s in open primaries won their races. Interestingly, three candidates in open primaries endorsed by EMILY's List in California did not advance to the general election, which will bring down their success rate. But we'll need to wait and see how EMILY's List candidates do overall this cycle.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


How anti-abortion candidates are doing

As I mentioned earlier, I'm tracking how anti-abortion Republicans are doing tonight. As Mary said, most Pennsylvanians support legal abortion, and it's shaping up to be a big issue in November. Three of the races I'm tracking are uncontested, and so we already have projected winners. Two incumbents, Rep. Scott Perry, who has six Democrats running to face off against him, and Lloyd Smucker, whose Democratic opponent pilot Jim Atkinson is also uncontested in the primary, are among the group. Aaron Bashir, a mathematics teacher at a community college and accountant for the city of Philadelphia, is the only Republican running to face off against incumbent Democrat Brendan Davis in the fall. He lost against Davis in 2022.

—Monica Potts, 538


Stelson leads in Democratic primary to face hard-right Perry

In the 10th District around Harrisburg, we now have early votes in from across all three counties in the district, representing almost half of the expected primary vote. This race doesn't look particularly close, either, as Stelson leads with 46 percent, followed by O'Brien with 21 percent and Daniels 13 percent. Hard to see Stelson losing that kind of edge at this point. The winner will face Rep. Scott Perry, the former House Freedom Caucus chair.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


But PA-01 may be a tighter race this time around

That’s right, Meredith, and as I mentioned earlier, Fitzpatrick beat Ehasz by 10 points in 2022, but there are signs that this race could be tighter. It’s a purple district that has seen some shifts to the left, namely some recent school board elections. Voters flipped the Central Bucks School District from majority Republican to majority Democratic in an election last year, and Democrats swept the Pennridge School Board election. Of course, school board elections have their own quirks, particularly with some of the identity politics issues that have come to a head in recent years, but we could see a similar friction emerge with abortion as a hot-button issue in the general. While Fitzpatrick is hardly an anti-abortion activist, it’s an area where he hasn’t been as clearly moderate (he’s voted for abortion bans, for example, and his campaign website avoids the issue entirely), and Ehasz has a clear advantage on this front. Of course, Fitzpatrick’s incumbency and the more conservative reaches of the district could certainly be enough to keep him in his seat, but I’d be willing to bet it will be by a slimmer margin than last time, if he manages to pull it off.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538


Some key General Assembly races in Pennsylvania tonight

In tonight's primaries, voters aren't just deciding on federal candidates for November's general election; they're also setting up the battles for control of the state House and Senate. In 2022, Democrats won the governorship, and they currently hold a one-vote majority in the House they've struggled to maintain through a series of special elections. The party is looking to expand that House majority and gain control of the Senate for a trifecta by targeting opportunities (and defending some vulnerable seats) in the purple areas of this purple state. And, of course, Republicans want to keep their Senate majority, which they've held for 30 years, and take back the House.

Republicans have a six-vote majority in the state Senate, so Democrats need to pick up at least three seats for a tie, which could be broken by Democratic Lt. Gov. Austin Davis. Half the chamber is up for election this cycle. Among the handful of key races, Democrats will be defending an Allegheny County seat and challenging Republicans for a Harrisburg-based seat that are both opening up because of retirements. In both districts, each party is holding a contested primary today and redistricting could give Democrats a boost in November. Democrats are also challenging Republican incumbents in two seats that flipped to red in 2016 and 2020; one will hold a competitive Democratic primary today between Erie County Democratic Party Chair Jim Wertz and former Sen. John Fetterman staffer Selena King.

In the House, the hot primary action will largely be on the Democratic side, as the party's more progressive and centrist flanks face off in districts around Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. In West Philadelphia, Rep. Amen Brown is defending his seat against two challengers, Sajda Blackwell, whose family has a history in area politics, and progressive community activist Cass Green. Brown ran unsuccessfully for mayor on a tough-on-crime stance, and has sided with Republicans in criticizing progressive Philly DA Larry Krasner. Elsewhere in the city, three incumbents endorsed by progressive group Reclaim Philadelphia are facing challengers of their own. And in the Pittsburgh area, state Rep. Abigail Salisbury, who stepped into U.S. Rep. Summer Lee's former seat, is facing a challenge from Ashley Comans, a progressive school board member who lost to Salisbury last year and is endorsed by Lee herself.

Tonight's results will have an effect on their party's chances to hold onto the state House majority in November, and also the direction the Democratic party may try to take should it seize a trifecta.

—Monica Potts, 538