In Pennsylvania's 10th District, where several Democrats were in today’s primary, former evening news anchor Janelle Stelson is currently leading with 48 percent of the expected vote in. Stelson has backing from EMILY’s List, which is historically a good sign. According to our analysis of the 2022 primaries, 85 percent of candidates endorsed by EMILY’s List’s in open primaries won their races. Interestingly, three candidates in open primaries endorsed by EMILY's List in California did not advance to the general election, which will bring down their success rate. But we'll need to wait and see how EMILY's List candidates do overall this cycle.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

As I mentioned earlier, I'm tracking how anti-abortion Republicans are doing tonight. As Mary said, most Pennsylvanians support legal abortion, and it's shaping up to be a big issue in November. Three of the races I'm tracking are uncontested, and so we already have projected winners. Two incumbents, Rep. Scott Perry, who has six Democrats running to face off against him, and Lloyd Smucker, whose Democratic opponent pilot Jim Atkinson is also uncontested in the primary, are among the group. Aaron Bashir, a mathematics teacher at a community college and accountant for the city of Philadelphia, is the only Republican running to face off against incumbent Democrat Brendan Davis in the fall. He lost against Davis in 2022.

—Monica Potts, 538

In the 10th District around Harrisburg, we now have early votes in from across all three counties in the district, representing almost half of the expected primary vote. This race doesn't look particularly close, either, as Stelson leads with 46 percent, followed by O'Brien with 21 percent and Daniels 13 percent. Hard to see Stelson losing that kind of edge at this point. The winner will face Rep. Scott Perry, the former House Freedom Caucus chair.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

That’s right, Meredith, and as I mentioned earlier, Fitzpatrick beat Ehasz by 10 points in 2022, but there are signs that this race could be tighter. It’s a purple district that has seen some shifts to the left, namely some recent school board elections. Voters flipped the Central Bucks School District from majority Republican to majority Democratic in an election last year, and Democrats swept the Pennridge School Board election. Of course, school board elections have their own quirks, particularly with some of the identity politics issues that have come to a head in recent years, but we could see a similar friction emerge with abortion as a hot-button issue in the general. While Fitzpatrick is hardly an anti-abortion activist, it’s an area where he hasn’t been as clearly moderate (he’s voted for abortion bans, for example, and his campaign website avoids the issue entirely), and Ehasz has a clear advantage on this front. Of course, Fitzpatrick’s incumbency and the more conservative reaches of the district could certainly be enough to keep him in his seat, but I’d be willing to bet it will be by a slimmer margin than last time, if he manages to pull it off.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

In the Pittsburgh-based 12th District, progressive Rep. Summer Lee could be vulnerable against Edgewood Borough Council member Bhavini Patel in the Democratic primary. Two years ago, in her first bid for this seat, Lee only won her primary by less than a point. And Patel's challenge has turned into a referendum on Lee's party bona fides. Behind this is Lee's membership in The Squad, a group of progressive House Democrats who've often been at odds with party leaders. This has been especially apparent in the intraparty debate over the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, most recently demonstrated by The Squad joining with about one-sixth of House Democrats in voting against foreign aid to Israel.

Lee's critics have often portrayed her as more dogmatic than pragmatic, a theme Patel's campaign has played up by arguing that Lee wants to undermine Biden and the Democratic Party. She has run ads attacking Lee for opposing the Biden administration and criticized Lee's support for the "uncommitted" movement in the presidential primary that wants Biden to adopt a less pro-Israel stance. Lee has countered by emphasizing her ability to bring federal investment to the district and her pro-choice record. Her campaign has also criticized "Republican-funded super PACs" for meddling — a reference to Patel's backing from Moderate PAC, a group mostly funded by a GOP donor, and the potential influence of the bipartisan American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has said it might spend $100 million against progressives this cycle.

Heading into the primary, Lee probably has the upper hand. We have no polls, but Lee had outraised Patel nearly 4-to-1 ($2.3 million to $602,000) as of April 3. Meanwhile, outside spending has run about even, according to OpenSecrets. Surprisingly, though, AIPAC's super PAC has not spent money against Lee despite investing $3.9 million to stop her in the 2022 primary. That may mean that AIPAC thinks Patel can't win, that she already has sufficient support and/or that support associated with AIPAC could harm Patel more than help her.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538