Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November

538 tracked congressional and downballot primary races in the Keystone State.

Pennsylvania is already in the thick of campaign season for November's presidential and U.S. Senate races, but on April 23, Democrats and Republicans in the Keystone State chose their candidates in a slate of other consequential races down the ballot this fall.

Among the key races to watch: a couple of incumbent House members — progressive Democrat Summer Lee and moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick — both fended off challengers from their right, and ballots are now set for a few other consequential contests that could help determine control of the House next year. Plus, some key battle lines for control of the state government in November are set, with the parties finalizing their candidates for attorney general, auditor, treasurer and both chambers of the state legislature.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


0

A final check-in on female candidates

All of today's congressional primary contests where women were running have been projected, according to ABC News. There aren't too many surprises, here. In most places where Democratic women lost, another woman won (e.g. Summer Lee fended off Bhavini Patel in the 12th; Janelle Stelson prevailed over Shamaine Daniels in the 10th). The exception is Tracey Gordon who was mounting a challenge to Democratic incumbent Dwight Evans in the 3rd. For the GOP, in the 7th, Maria Montero would've advanced to a competitive November race, but failed to win. In the 5th, Alfeia Goodwin was uncontested, but she will face an uphill battle in that blue district.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Final check-in with anti-abortion Republicans

Tonight I've been tracking anti-abortion Republicans, and there was one notable loss: Houck, a far-right anti-abortion activist, lost to moderate incumbent Fitzpatrick. In most of the other races, anti-abortion Republicans ran unopposed, and in Pennsylvania's 7th, all three Republican primary candidates were on our list. As Kaleigh noted, Mackenzie is the projected winner in that race to take on Wild in what's expected to be one of the most competitive House races this fall.

—Monica Potts, 538


Answer: It was B!

Meredith called it with the Matty Healy reference wrapped in a namedrop of "The Starting Line" (who subsequently thanked T Swift for the shoutout). In her song “The Black Dog,” Swift sings about an ex, asking how he can not miss her when in a pub and somebody plays "The Starting Line," but "she’s too young to know this song.” That said, Swift has dropped a political reference or two before, though more general. She uses the term “also ran” on this latest album and has the cutting line “did you hear my covert narcissism I disguise as altruism like some kind of congressman?” in “Anti-Hero,” her big single from her last album.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538


Answer: No idea, but politics?

For kicks, I'll guess D, Kaleigh. If the song is about corruption, Fumo would be a good reference: In 2009, he was convicted of 137 corruption counts for various schemes, defrauding various institutions and obstruction of justice.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


The 12th District Democratic primary will test The Squad’s strength

In the Pittsburgh-based 12th District, progressive Rep. Summer Lee could be vulnerable against Edgewood Borough Council member Bhavini Patel in the Democratic primary. Two years ago, in her first bid for this seat, Lee only won her primary by less than a point. And Patel's challenge has turned into a referendum on Lee's party bona fides. Behind this is Lee's membership in The Squad, a group of progressive House Democrats who've often been at odds with party leaders. This has been especially apparent in the intraparty debate over the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, most recently demonstrated by The Squad joining with about one-sixth of House Democrats in voting against foreign aid to Israel.

Lee's critics have often portrayed her as more dogmatic than pragmatic, a theme Patel's campaign has played up by arguing that Lee wants to undermine Biden and the Democratic Party. She has run ads attacking Lee for opposing the Biden administration and criticized Lee's support for the "uncommitted" movement in the presidential primary that wants Biden to adopt a less pro-Israel stance. Lee has countered by emphasizing her ability to bring federal investment to the district and her pro-choice record. Her campaign has also criticized "Republican-funded super PACs" for meddling — a reference to Patel's backing from Moderate PAC, a group mostly funded by a GOP donor, and the potential influence of the bipartisan American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has said it might spend $100 million against progressives this cycle.

Heading into the primary, Lee probably has the upper hand. We have no polls, but Lee had outraised Patel nearly 4-to-1 ($2.3 million to $602,000) as of April 3. Meanwhile, outside spending has run about even, according to OpenSecrets. Surprisingly, though, AIPAC's super PAC has not spent money against Lee despite investing $3.9 million to stop her in the 2022 primary. That may mean that AIPAC thinks Patel can't win, that she already has sufficient support and/or that support associated with AIPAC could harm Patel more than help her.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538