Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November

538 tracked congressional and downballot primary races in the Keystone State.

Pennsylvania is already in the thick of campaign season for November's presidential and U.S. Senate races, but on April 23, Democrats and Republicans in the Keystone State chose their candidates in a slate of other consequential races down the ballot this fall.

Among the key races to watch: a couple of incumbent House members — progressive Democrat Summer Lee and moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick — both fended off challengers from their right, and ballots are now set for a few other consequential contests that could help determine control of the House next year. Plus, some key battle lines for control of the state government in November are set, with the parties finalizing their candidates for attorney general, auditor, treasurer and both chambers of the state legislature.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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In Alabama, Republican Caroleene Dobson advances from the run-off in the 2nd District

Slight break from Pennsylvania ... As I just mentioned earlier, the GOP is trailing Democrats when it comes to nominating women to competitive races. But last Tuesday, attorney Caroleene Dobson beat Dick Brewbaker, a businessman and former state senator in the runoff in Alabama's 2nd District, so she will be on the ballot in November. Dobson had backing from VIEWPAC, which was founded in 1997 to help elect qualified, viable Republican women to Congress. The Democrats also had a runoff, which was won by a Biden administration alum, Shomari Figures.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Lee leads after initial batch of returns from Allegheny County

In the 12th District Democratic primary, incumbent Lee leads challenger Patel 55 percent to 45 percent after Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) reported a big chunk of early votes just after polls closed. On the one hand, this shows Patel isn't that far behind Lee and could be in the race. On the other hand, Lee actually lost the mail/early vote in the 2022 primary here when she first won this seat, 51 percent to 31 percent, but this time around she leads it. And since about 90 percent of the primary vote will come from Allegheny (the rest from Westmoreland next door), Lee has to be seen as a favorite at this point.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


And we’ve got some preliminary results from Bucks County!

In the 1st District, GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is well ahead of his challenger from the right, anti-abortion activist Mark Houck. With 20 percent of the expected vote reporting, Fitzpatrick has 83 percent to Houck’s 17 percent. In fact, the Associated Press has already called this race and projected Fitzpatrick to win. ABC News, however, has yet to make a projection, so hang tight!

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538


Pennsylvania voters are focused on the economy

In Pennsylvania, as in many states around the country, voters name the economy as the most important issue facing the state. In a mid-March Emerson College/The Hill survey, 36 percent of respondents said "the economy (jobs, inflation, taxes)" was the most important issue facing Pennsylvania. The next most chosen issue was crime (12 percent), followed by immigration and "threats to democracy" (11 percent each) and healthcare (9 percent).

Republicans were particularly concerned about the economy and immigration, with 47 and 21 percent selecting those two issues, respectively, and no other issue chosen by more than 9 percent of Republican voters. Democrats also selected the economy first, but with less gusto: 27 percent said the economy is the most important issue, followed by threats to democracy (16 percent), healthcare (15 percent) and crime (13 percent).

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


The Israel-Hamas conflict has impacted local dynamics in Lee's race

Reporting live from the 12th District, there have definitely been some shenanigans playing out here in the Lee-Patel race, Geoffrey, so I'll be interested to see what happens with the other Squad challenges. For example, the 14th Ward Independent Democratic Club, an influential progressive group located on the East End in Pittsburgh, endorsed Patel over Lee. In 2022, the IDC endorsed Lee over the more moderate Steve Irwin, so it may look like the club has had a change of heart.

However, there's much more happening behind the scenes. Allegheny County's 14th Ward includes Squirrel Hill, traditionally the home of Pittsburgh's orthodox Jewish community. In January of this year, over 150 new members became a part of the IDC in advance of their annual votes on board members and endorsements, growing the club's membership by more than 50 percent. The new IDC members ousted board members that they considered too pro-Palestine, and were instrumental in directing the group's endorsements. So while it may appear to voters that a progressive group is abandoning Lee, a peek behind the curtain reveals quite a bit more is going on.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538