Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November

538 tracked congressional and downballot primary races in the Keystone State.

Pennsylvania is already in the thick of campaign season for November's presidential and U.S. Senate races, but on April 23, Democrats and Republicans in the Keystone State chose their candidates in a slate of other consequential races down the ballot this fall.

Among the key races to watch: a couple of incumbent House members — progressive Democrat Summer Lee and moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick — both fended off challengers from their right, and ballots are now set for a few other consequential contests that could help determine control of the House next year. Plus, some key battle lines for control of the state government in November are set, with the parties finalizing their candidates for attorney general, auditor, treasurer and both chambers of the state legislature.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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In Alabama, Republican Caroleene Dobson advances from the run-off in the 2nd District

Slight break from Pennsylvania ... As I just mentioned earlier, the GOP is trailing Democrats when it comes to nominating women to competitive races. But last Tuesday, attorney Caroleene Dobson beat Dick Brewbaker, a businessman and former state senator in the runoff in Alabama's 2nd District, so she will be on the ballot in November. Dobson had backing from VIEWPAC, which was founded in 1997 to help elect qualified, viable Republican women to Congress. The Democrats also had a runoff, which was won by a Biden administration alum, Shomari Figures.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Lee leads after initial batch of returns from Allegheny County

In the 12th District Democratic primary, incumbent Lee leads challenger Patel 55 percent to 45 percent after Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) reported a big chunk of early votes just after polls closed. On the one hand, this shows Patel isn't that far behind Lee and could be in the race. On the other hand, Lee actually lost the mail/early vote in the 2022 primary here when she first won this seat, 51 percent to 31 percent, but this time around she leads it. And since about 90 percent of the primary vote will come from Allegheny (the rest from Westmoreland next door), Lee has to be seen as a favorite at this point.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


And we’ve got some preliminary results from Bucks County!

In the 1st District, GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is well ahead of his challenger from the right, anti-abortion activist Mark Houck. With 20 percent of the expected vote reporting, Fitzpatrick has 83 percent to Houck’s 17 percent. In fact, the Associated Press has already called this race and projected Fitzpatrick to win. ABC News, however, has yet to make a projection, so hang tight!

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538


Pennsylvania voters are focused on the economy

In Pennsylvania, as in many states around the country, voters name the economy as the most important issue facing the state. In a mid-March Emerson College/The Hill survey, 36 percent of respondents said "the economy (jobs, inflation, taxes)" was the most important issue facing Pennsylvania. The next most chosen issue was crime (12 percent), followed by immigration and "threats to democracy" (11 percent each) and healthcare (9 percent).

Republicans were particularly concerned about the economy and immigration, with 47 and 21 percent selecting those two issues, respectively, and no other issue chosen by more than 9 percent of Republican voters. Democrats also selected the economy first, but with less gusto: 27 percent said the economy is the most important issue, followed by threats to democracy (16 percent), healthcare (15 percent) and crime (13 percent).

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


Welcome!

Happy primary day to those who celebrate! (That's us, fellow Pennsyvlanians.)

The Keystone State is already in the public eye this election cycle, as it's expected to be a battleground state for both the presidential race and a critical U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and Republican David McCormick. And there are consequential races down the ballot, too: Several competitive U.S. House races could impact the balance of the House majority, while Democrats are hoping to compete for control of both chambers of the state legislature to earn their first state government trifecta in more than 30 years.

And while the candidates for president and Senate are set, today's primary contests will determine just who's on the ballot from each party in those key down ballot races. Tonight, we're closely tracking a handful of significant U.S. House races, including progressive Rep. Summer Lee's bid to hold off a more moderate challenger; moderate Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick's challenge from the hard right; and a three-way GOP primary to decide who will face off against Rep. Susan Wild in one of the most competitive House races this fall. We've also got our eyes on some hotly contested primary contests for statewide offices like attorney general and a number of spicy state legislative races.

As usual, we'll be here to guide you through it all with the latest results and analysis throughout the evening. We should start seeing results come in shortly after polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. Thanks for joining us!

—Tia Yang, 538