Republican debate highlights and analysis: Candidates squabble in Simi Valley

2024 hopefuls argued over education, spending and border security.

The second Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary, taking place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, has just come to an end.

The affair was more raucous than the first debate, which took place over a month ago. Candidates interrupted one another much more regularly and several — most notably former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — have directly criticized front-runner Donald Trump, who elected not to show up tonight. The two candidates from South Carolina, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott, went after one another for their records on spending, and seemingly everyone who had the chance to take a shot at entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy did so.

Read below for highlights, excerpts and key moments.


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What 538 is watching for tonight: DeSantis

Tonight I’ll be keeping track of DeSantis, who, despite several campaign shakeups and a steady slide in both national polls and early state surveys remains the second-place contender in the GOP primary, and who will appear at center stage this evening. DeSantis didn’t have a breakout moment last debate, though he may have been hobbled by the embarrassment of his Super PAC publicly releasing his entire debate strategy just beforehand. This time around, he may need to make a larger splash to re-convince voters he’s the best (or only) alternative to Trump. The other candidates are now nipping at his feet — he’s not even polling second in New Hampshire and South Carolina anymore — and if he becomes just another member of the pack he could lose whatever luster he has left. He’s already (started taking shots at Haley)[], who had one of the better-reviewed first debate performances and who has seen some movement in the polls. With seven candidates on stage, he’ll have limited time to make his move. Will he finally go after Trump more forcefully, or does he feel enough pressure from below to focus on Haley and the others?

—Analysis by Jacob Rubashkin, 538 contributor


What 538 is watching for tonight: Ramaswamy

I'm closely monitoring Vivek Ramaswamy. The self-proclaimed outsider made a big splash during the last debate, garnering more media attention and generating higher Google search interest than his rivals. This triggered speculation that he might experience an upswing in the polls. However, his numbers have exhibited a consistent downward trend over the last month. It's plausible that the very characteristic that initially captivated debate viewers — his confrontational and too-smart-to-be-here style of arguing — may have, ironically, alienated the average Republican voter. I'll be looking for any shifts in his rhetorical approach or substantive positions during tonight's proceedings. Like his fellow candidates, Ramaswamy needs a substantial strategic maneuver to reshape the trajectory of his campaign.

—Analysis by G. Elliott Morris


What 538 is watching for tonight: Pence

I’m monitoring Pence tonight, and I’ve got to be honest: I don’t know how much he can do to increase his standing in the primary other than hope that other candidates implode. During the last debate, he had plenty of speaking time and, given Trump’s hatred for his former vice president, a pretty strong reception from the Fox News crowd. But still, nothing substantially changed. Voters expected him to give an average performance, and he pretty much delivered. He’s averaging less than 5 percent in national primary polling.

It’s not clear where Pence has room to grow. He’s better known than any candidate on tonight’s debate stage, and voters seem to have decided how they feel about him. If he’s a second-choice to similar candidates — others who, say, share his dislike of Trump but would nonetheless support him in a general election — Pence could benefit from a smaller field. So, the best thing Pence could do might just be to stay the course, continuing to get enough support to appear on a debate stage and waiting out lesser-known and underfunded candidates.

—Analysis by Leah Askarinam


What 538 is watching for tonight: Haley and Christie

I’ll be monitoring Haley and Christie tonight, who have taken different approaches to arguing for the Republican Party to move beyond Trump. While Haley has been somewhat critical of Trump, Christie has aggressively gone after him. Not coincidentally, Haley remains relatively well-liked among GOP voters, unlike Christie, who is persona non grata to most. I’m interested to see how Haley will seek to balance criticism (indirect or direct) of Trump with efforts to play to base voters, especially in polls of . As for Christie, I’m watching for how other candidates will use him as a foil to demonstrate their pro-Trump bona fides.

—Analysis by Geoffrey Skelley


Christie suggested that the government should refrain from regulating AI. Polling shows Republicans agree: when it comes to who should be responsible for providing solutions to AI-related issues, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to turn to companies and brands than to the government. In a July survey from Ipsos, Republicans preferred companies and brands over the government to be most responsible for creating or retaining local jobs by 29 percentage points, ensuring that AI doesn’t discriminate by 8 percentage points and ensuring AI provides accurate results by 14 percentage points. On protecting creators from unfair use of their work and preventing the spread of misinformation by AI, equal numbers of Republicans said that the government and companies should be most responsible.
—Analysis by 538