Nikki Haley is going in on Tim Scott's tenure in D.C., asking him "Where have you been? Where have you been, Tim? We've waited 12 years!" without mentioning that she was the one who sent him to the Senate in the first place!
—Jacob Rubashkin, 538 contributor

DeSantis misleads on his position. DeSantis said Haley wasn't telling the truth about the Florida governor's actions on fracking. But it's DeSantis who is the one who needs to do more explaining.

Even before he entered office, DeSantis promised to urge Florida's legislature to ban hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, statewide.

"With Florida's geological makeup of limestone and shallow water sources, fracking presents a danger to our state that is not acceptable," the governor's campaign website read, adding that fighting fracking was a day one action.

Almost all of the action DeSantis took on fracking occurred shortly after he became governor. Just two days into his term, DeSantis issued an executive order with several water policy reforms and a line directing the Department of Environmental Protection to push to end all fracking in Florida.

The order instructed the department to "take necessary actions to adamantly oppose all off-shore oil and gas activities off every coast in Florida and hydraulic fracturing in Florida." Fracking injects water, chemicals and sand at ultrahigh pressure to force open layers of rock and unearth the oil (or sometimes natural gas) that's trapped inside.
-Analysis by Aaron Sharockman, PolitiFact

Americans of both parties don’t expect the national deficit to shrink, according to a June poll from the Pew Research Center. Seventy percent of respondents said they expected the annual deficit to grow in the next five years, including 80 percent of Republicans and 61 percent of Democrats. Just 11 percent of respondents said they thought the deficit would be smaller in five years, including 9 percent of Republicans and 14 percent of Democrats.
—Analysis by 538

A couple times tonight, Pence has made the case for a conservative, small-government focused GOP. But as evidenced by the crickets on his initial joke at the start of the debate, there just doesn't seem to be much appetite for him in the Trumpified Republican Party. This isn't a surprise really, given he started the campaign already a villain to many Republicans because Trump had blamed him for his defeat because Pence didn't try to block certification of Biden's victory. But Pence finds himself on the edge of the stage tonight because of his low polling level, and there has really been no good polling news for him recently. His horserace numbers are flat or going down and his favorability numbers among Republicans have worsened, with only Christie having more negative ratings. When might Pence actually leave the race? No idea. But in a field full of candidates who are struggling to have a path to winning, Pence is among those with the least signs of hope.

— Analysis by Geoffrey Skelley of 538

Outside of the Trump-critical wing of the Republican primary — featuring Christie and Hutchinson, with major appearances by Pence — most of the presidential field has tip-toed around Trump, careful not to attract his ire. But in the last couple weeks, some candidates have started taking on Trump more directly, jeopardizing their prospects as his running mate.

Trump was already unlikely to name a challenger as his VP pick. Of the 19 unique Democratic and Republican presidential nominees since 1972, only four selected a running mate who had run against them in the same year’s primary. And Trump is even more prickly about loyalty than his recent predecessors.

Last week, we analyzed the tweets of the six highest-polling Republican candidates (other than Trump) in 538’s national polling average. Until recently, DeSantis had hardly acknowledged the former president, mentioning Trump just once since Jan. 6, 2021. But that changed last week, when DeSantis published three critical tweets about Trump. Scott, meanwhile, has largely kept his social media tone neutral toward Trump, but we did see a rare direct criticism on the stump last week, when he said Trump’s suggestion that he’d seek a compromise on federal abortion legislation was the wrong approach. Haley’s tone toward Trump shifted earlier this summer, from cautious to directly critical.

Tonight could tell us whether these recent instances of criticism are the beginnings of a new trend in which the GOP field actually tries to topple the front-runner.

—Analysis by Leah Askarinam of 538