DeSantis is asked about the Florida education guidelines on teaching slavery. He immediately calls it a hoax and attacks Vice President Kamala Harris (America's first Black vice president), which has been his campaign's strategy on this issue since it first broke. The moderators are quick to tee up a discussion between DeSantis and Scott, though, since the South Carolina senator was among the most outspoken Republicans against the DeSantis plan.
-Jacob Rubashkin, 538 contributor

Moderators questioned Haley on "school choice." Seven Republican states, including Florida, passed "universal school choice" this year, which mostly means vouchers for private schools that are available to nearly all students, without income limits. Public school supporters have said these vouchers are a backdoor way of defunding public schools. In most states, states take the per-pupil allocation of tax dollars and give the money directly to parents instead, allowing them to pay for private, religious, or homeschooling courses. In many states the vouchers could go to parents who could otherwise pay for private school, and aren't enough to pay for full tuition for parents who couldn't afford it. The public is divided on these policies, but trust in public schools and public education has been declining, especially among Republicans.
— Analysis by Monica Potts of 538

Asked about the challenges of high health care costs for Americans, Haley argued that the system needs a major overhaul, from the insurance companies to hospitals, with improved transparency for patients so they have more options and better knowledge of the costs they'll face. Still, this issue isn't as high on Republicans' list of key issues. In a recent Economist/YouGov survey, 58 percent of Republicans said "heath care" was a very important issue. That sounds high, but 81 percent said the same of jobs and the economy, 81 percent of national security and 77 percent of immigration. It's not the 2010 tea party era anymore, or even 2017, when the GOP failed to get rid of Obamacare while in full control of the government.

— Analysis by Geoffrey Skelley of 538

In polling for EdChoice conducted by Morning Consult in August, 46 percent of Republicans strongly or somewhat support school vouchers, while 11 percent strongly or somewhat oppose vouchers, 27 percent say they have never heard of them, and 16 percent don’t know. After being provided a definition, support for vouchers among Republicans increased to 70 percent, and opposition increased to 19 percent.
—Analysis by 538

Outside of the Trump-critical wing of the Republican primary — featuring Christie and Hutchinson, with major appearances by Pence — most of the presidential field has tip-toed around Trump, careful not to attract his ire. But in the last couple weeks, some candidates have started taking on Trump more directly, jeopardizing their prospects as his running mate.

Trump was already unlikely to name a challenger as his VP pick. Of the 19 unique Democratic and Republican presidential nominees since 1972, only four selected a running mate who had run against them in the same year’s primary. And Trump is even more prickly about loyalty than his recent predecessors.

Last week, we analyzed the tweets of the six highest-polling Republican candidates (other than Trump) in 538’s national polling average. Until recently, DeSantis had hardly acknowledged the former president, mentioning Trump just once since Jan. 6, 2021. But that changed last week, when DeSantis published three critical tweets about Trump. Scott, meanwhile, has largely kept his social media tone neutral toward Trump, but we did see a rare direct criticism on the stump last week, when he said Trump’s suggestion that he’d seek a compromise on federal abortion legislation was the wrong approach. Haley’s tone toward Trump shifted earlier this summer, from cautious to directly critical.

Tonight could tell us whether these recent instances of criticism are the beginnings of a new trend in which the GOP field actually tries to topple the front-runner.

—Analysis by Leah Askarinam of 538