When asked whether the Obama administration’s Affordable Care Act was “here to stay,” Pence started off by calling for a federal expedited death penalty for mass shooters. When pressed again by the moderator, he turned the question of the ACA into one about Trump, suggesting that questions about health care policy should be a decision by Congress and the executive branch, while Trump wants to “consolidate power in the executive branch.” Pence said he’d like to “revive federalism in America.”
— Analysis by Leah Askarinam of 538

In our pre-debate 538/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, 9 percent of likely Republican primary voters were looking at “improving health care” as one of up to three most important issues (among a list of 20) in deciding which candidate to vote for in the primaries.

—Analysis by Holly Fuong of 538

Using military force in Mexico has become one of DeSantis's signature planks. In the past few months he's talked about sending special forces to confront the cartels, and didn't rule out firing missiles into Mexico either. It's a heavy-handed proposal that just a few years ago probably would have been major news but these days is pretty par for the course for more and more GOP officeholders.
-Jacob Rubashkin, 538 contributor

A plurality (31 percent) of Republican voters in a NewsNation poll from July said that drugs and substance abuse was the overall root cause of crime in their community. Twenty-three percent said the breakdown of the family unit was to blame, followed by 17 percent who listed underfunding of law enforcement. Systemic racism was the least mentioned issue, with just 3 percent of Republicans saying that it was the overall root cause of their community’s crime.
—Analysis by 538

Outside of the Trump-critical wing of the Republican primary — featuring Christie and Hutchinson, with major appearances by Pence — most of the presidential field has tip-toed around Trump, careful not to attract his ire. But in the last couple weeks, some candidates have started taking on Trump more directly, jeopardizing their prospects as his running mate.

Trump was already unlikely to name a challenger as his VP pick. Of the 19 unique Democratic and Republican presidential nominees since 1972, only four selected a running mate who had run against them in the same year’s primary. And Trump is even more prickly about loyalty than his recent predecessors.

Last week, we analyzed the tweets of the six highest-polling Republican candidates (other than Trump) in 538’s national polling average. Until recently, DeSantis had hardly acknowledged the former president, mentioning Trump just once since Jan. 6, 2021. But that changed last week, when DeSantis published three critical tweets about Trump. Scott, meanwhile, has largely kept his social media tone neutral toward Trump, but we did see a rare direct criticism on the stump last week, when he said Trump’s suggestion that he’d seek a compromise on federal abortion legislation was the wrong approach. Haley’s tone toward Trump shifted earlier this summer, from cautious to directly critical.

Tonight could tell us whether these recent instances of criticism are the beginnings of a new trend in which the GOP field actually tries to topple the front-runner.

—Analysis by Leah Askarinam of 538