After last month’s debate, we declared Haley as a big debate winner, according to our previous poll with The Washington Post and Ipsos. When likely Republican primary voters who watched the debate were asked whether they’d consider voting for each candidate, Haley jumped from 30 percent before the debate to 47 percent after. Overall, participation in the debate was beneficial for candidates, and absence from the debate was (at least marginally) detrimental.

We’ll be following up with the same group as our pre-debate poll to see how participants performed and what respondents' views on all of the candidates are. Check back in with 538 tomorrow afternoon for our post-debate analysis.

—Analysis by Holly Fuong of 538

DeSantis gets another chance to be the adult in the room by rejecting the premise of that moderator question. He did the same thing in the first debate when the moderators asked candidates to raise their hands if they believed in man-made climate change.
-Jacob Rubashkin, 538 contributor

Moderator Dana Perino asked every candidate to write down which challenger they would “vote off the island.” DeSantis refused, prompting Perino to rework her approach, asking for his mathematical approach to winning the nomination — and of course, that’s not going to work with a politician. Christie, however, interjected that he’d be just fine voting Trump off the island.
-- Analysis by Leah Askarinam of 538

DeSantis claimed that his 1.5 million-vote victory was the largest in a Florida gubernatorial election in state history. Now, his nearly-20 percentage point margin of victory was quite large in what has historically been a swing state. But it's quite misleading to use the raw vote margin since population has changed quite a bit over time! This is especially true in a state like Florida, which has grown by leaps and bounds. For instance, a candidate would've had a tougher time winning by 1.5 million votes in 1990, when the state had a population of about 13 million, than in 2022, when the state had a population of about 22 million.

— Analysis by Geoffrey Skelley of 538

Foreign policy isn’t quite dominating this debate, but U.S. policy towards China is a prominent theme, and Ramaswamy is bearing down a lot of attacks on that.

Ramaswamy and Haley had a heated moment on the debate stage over the issue of support for Ukraine – which Haley tied to China. When Ramaswamy argued against support for Ukraine, Haley jumped in, saying that a win for Russia is a win for China, and then accused Ramaswamy of liking China.

There was also the memorable TikTok exchange between the two. Haley sniped at Ramaswamy that "every time I hear you, I feel a little bit dumber for what you say” and that he can't be trusted as he justified his choice to join TikTok after being convinced by influencer and boxer Jake Paul to join despite previously calling it "digital fentanyl." TikTok was created by Chinese company ByteDance and lawmakers have scrutinized the app over security concerns. (Ads for TikTok are also airing on Fox Business Network during commercial breaks.)

Scott also accused Ramaswamy of being ‘bought’ by China. He was likely referencing Ramaswamy's company, Roivant Sciences, announcing 5-years ago that it was partnering with China state-owned investment company CITIC Group Corp

And Pence had a similar, pointed attack: “I'm glad Vivek pulled out of his business deal in 2018 in China -- that must have been about the time you decided to start voting in presidential elections."

It’s worth noting that Haley criticized Trump too on this front, in that case for not pursuing China aggressively enough on a host of issues: “This is where President Trump went wrong.”

– ABC News’ Kendall Ross, Libby Cathey, Soorin Kim, Abby Cruz, Nicholas Kerr, and Oren Oppenheim