Hello readers! I’m Jacob Rubashkin (not 1992 VP candidate James Stockdale), and I’m a reporter and analyst for Inside Elections, a small, nonpartisan newsletter that does in-depth coverage of House, Senate, gubernatorial and presidential races. You may have seen our “race ratings,” which we publish regularly to assess each party’s chance of winning every election around the country.

Tonight, I’ll be reporting for duty as a 538 contributor, as I’ve done for many debates, primaries, and general elections over the past two years. I’ll be providing live analysis on the events playing out on stage, and also thinking about how the course of the GOP presidential primary will affect the fight for Congress next year, when Republicans aim to win back full control of Washington, D.C. (The debate is taking place in California’s 26th District, which is Solid Democratic, but right next door is the highly competitive 27th District, where vulnerable GOP Rep. Mike Garcia might not appreciate having to run with Trump at the top of the ticket).

—Analysis by Jacob Rubashkin, 538 Contributor

Your humble fact-checker is reporting for duty. I’m Aaron Sharockman, the executive director of PolitiFact. We’re excited to help sort out fact from fiction during tonight’s debate. I’m not omniscient — in case you’re wondering. PolitiFact has a team of more than 30 fact-checkers that has been scrutinizing the candidates’ remarks for months. And wouldn’t you know it, candidates tend to repeat themselves on debate night. I’ll be popping in when we see something that warrants more context or a correction.
-Aaron Sharockman, PolitiFact

Trump maintains a lead of 27 percentage points over Haley, his nearest competitor in South Carolina, according to polls conducted since the first debate. Haley’s average support has grown by 9 points since the first debate, while DeSantis and Scott have fallen.

According to a September survey from Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research/Fox Business, 69 percent of likely South Carolina Republican primary voters say they support their first-choice candidate strongly, while 28 percent say they support them only somewhat. Among those that list Trump as their first choice, 86 percent say they support him strongly, while the second-place candidate, Haley, has only 57 percent saying the same.

In a September survey by Monmouth University/The Washington Post, South Carolina primary voters are split on whether the Republican Party should nominate a candidate who agrees with them on major issues (51 percent) or one who can beat Biden (45 percent). Among voters who say they are very or somewhat conservative, selecting a candidate who can beat Joe Biden is more important by a margin of 7 and 11 percentage points, respectively. Voters who say they are moderate or liberal prefer a candidate who agrees with them on major issues by 31 percentage points.

—Analysis by 538

Hours before the seven Republicans who qualified for the second RNC debate would have taken the stage at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California, a few hopefuls shared their pre-game time rituals.

Pence got a workout in, did some light preparation work, and spent time with his wife, former Second Lady Karen Pence, daughter Charlotte and granddaughter Etta, according to a campaign adviser.

Scott spent the day with family. He took time for prayer, some devotionals, and worked out at the gym. The tune on repeat in his headphones this week has been "Way Maker" by Leeland, according to a source familiar with the campaign.

Ramaswamy had breakfast, worked out and played with his two sons Karthik and Arjun until he worked out again later, according to spokesperson and senior advisor Tricia McLaughlin. The tech entrepreneur also toured the Reagan Library, where he told reporters that he was “feeling good” ahead of the debate.

Haley's team shared the former ambassador’s playlist that she listened to before the debate. They include:

When debate moderators asked the 2024 GOP candidates about the impending government shutdown, some – including Trump’s closest opponent DeSantis – pivoted to blame the former president and current President Biden for the logjam.

Both men also called out Trump for his absence on stage, noting that he should be answering for himself as the shutdown looms.

"People in Washington are shutting down the American dream with their reckless behavior,” DeSantis said.

“And you know who else is missing an action? Donald Trump is missing an action. He should be on this stage tonight. He owes it to you to defend his record where they added 7.8 trillion to the debt that set the stage for the inflation that we have.”

Chris Christie – one of Trump’s staunchest critics – also admonished the former president.

“If the government shuts down, should voters blame populace Republicans? Very simply everybody who's in Washington, D.C.,” said Christie.

“And let's be honest about this with the voters. You know, during the Trump administration, they added $7 trillion — $7 trillion in national debt. And now the Biden administration has put another 5 trillion on and counting.”

“Donald Trump– he hides behind the walls of his golf clubs, and won't show up here to answer questions like all the rest of us are up here. He puts 7 trillion on the debt. He should be in this room to answer those questions for the people you talk about who are suffering,” Christie said.

–ABC News’ Isabella Murray