Yeah, Jacob — not a lot of voters are going to stay home in a swing state in a presidential election with an abortion ballot measure (maybe) on the ballot.

—Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of 538

DeSantis is asked about how he'll win over pro-choice voters in states like Arizona and, while he doesn't give an actual strategy, he says he's already done it in Florida, citing his big victory in 2022. But as many have written, Florida's Republican wave last year was just as much if not more a function of Democrats just staying home altogether rather than voting for DeSantis.
-Jacob Rubashkin, 538 contributor

Dana Perino is asking about abortion policy. In an August survey conducted by SurveyMonkey for 19th News, only 15 percent of Republicans said that abortion should be illegal in all cases. A majority of Republicans said that abortion should be legal if the patient’s life is endangered (71 percent), in cases of rape or incest (68 percent), if the patient’s health is endangered (55 percent), or if the fetus is not expected to survive (52 percent). Only 19 percent of Republicans said abortion should be legal for women who do not wish to be pregnant.
—Analysis by 538

DeSantis just bragged that the Florida Democratic Party is in ruins and that he turned Florida into a red state. I took a closer look at this question a couple weeks ago, though, and found … not a lot of evidence that DeSantis himself is responsible for the reddening of Florida.

—Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of 538

Trump maintains a lead of 33 percentage points over Haley, his nearest competitor in New Hampshire, according to the most recent polls. Haley appears to have benefitted the most from the first debate in the state, gaining 8 points compared to her average result on Aug. 23. No other candidate’s average has moved by more than 3 points, either up or down.

According to a September survey from the University of New Hampshire/CNN, only 36 percent of likely New Hampshire primary voters have definitely decided who they plan to vote for. Thirty-eight percent said they are leaning toward someone, and 24 percent said they are still trying to decide. Trump’s voters, however, were much more firm on their choice: Sixty-nine percent said they have definitely decided, compared with 31 percent for Ramaswamy and less than 20 percent for the other candidates.

When it comes to policy, New Hampshire Republican primary voters seem particularly concerned about economic issues, according to a September survey by NMB Research for the Competitiveness Coalition and the Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy. Given a list of issues that have been raised in the primary, 32 percent said the most important issue to them would be reducing federal budget deficits by cutting spending; 21 percent said it would be spending less on green energy by repealing parts of the Inflation Reduction Act; and 18 percent said it would be keeping taxes low. The only other issue to reach double-digit support was deploying the U.S. military to the Mexican border to stop illegal drugs from entering the country, which was named as most important by 19 percent of voters.

—Analysis by 538