I'm at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California, for the Republican debate tonight and so far it's been a Democrat who's caused the biggest stir in the spin room. California Gov. Gavin Newsom came through for an interview with Univision and a rather lengthy gaggle with the national press corps. He defended his decision to debate DeSantis later this year, defended his presence at a Republican debate in the first place and he answered a question from yours truly.

I asked him about one of the issues that Biden is currently faring worst with the American public on: immigration, and specifically border security. Newsom told me he supports Biden's plan on this issue, but that: “The one thing I would add to it, not what’s wrong with it, is we need to do more on the asylum space as it relates to how the asylum system is being gamed and that is legitimate.”

The first question of the night goes to Scott, who is the subject of a UAW labor complaint for suggesting that striking auto workers should be fired. This time around, he says that the president doesn’t have the authority to fire private-sector workers and then pivots.

Instead of participating in tonight’s debate, Trump opted to give a speech in Detroit, where autoworkers are on strike against the Big Three automakers. In a recent Morning Consult poll, 54 percent of Americans said they support the strike by the United Auto Workers against General Motors, Ford and Stellantis, while just 18 percent were opposed and 28 percent didn’t have an opinion.
—Analysis by 538

Tonight, I’m watching the debate from Michigan, where I’m covering a split within the GOP. I’m looking for signs of where the party is breaking with Trump and where they’re still loyal to him. I’m also listening for the candidates’ positions on issues Republican voters in this state say they care about. They’re still angry over the COVID-19 shutdowns, they’re mad about electric cars, which they say will cost auto worker jobs, and they’re worried about the economy. That’s especially true with United Auto Workers workers striking in this state. This week, Biden joined the picket line and Trump will visit a nonunion plant.

– Analysis by Monica Potts of 538

It was a slow start for DeSantis, who was often absent in conversations over the first hour. But he hit his stride in the back half of the debate and had a few solid, clippable moments. He ultimately spoke the most of any candidate. And he got to throw his weight around a bit at the very end by bulldozing over moderator Dana Perino's "Survivor"-esque question about which candidate should be "voted off the island." But in the grand scheme of things, holding his own against a bunch of candidates polling in the single digits is not how DeSantis is going to win the GOP nomination. To do that, he needs to chip away at Trump's base of support. And while he took a few notable shots at the former president, chastising him for not showing up to the debate, without Trump on the debate stage it is tough for him to prosecute the case effectively even if he wants to.
-Analysis by Jacob Rubashkin, 538 contributor