I'm at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California, for the Republican debate tonight and so far it's been a Democrat who's caused the biggest stir in the spin room. California Gov. Gavin Newsom came through for an interview with Univision and a rather lengthy gaggle with the national press corps. He defended his decision to debate DeSantis later this year, defended his presence at a Republican debate in the first place and he answered a question from yours truly.

I asked him about one of the issues that Biden is currently faring worst with the American public on: immigration, and specifically border security. Newsom told me he supports Biden's plan on this issue, but that: “The one thing I would add to it, not what’s wrong with it, is we need to do more on the asylum space as it relates to how the asylum system is being gamed and that is legitimate.”

The first question of the night goes to Scott, who is the subject of a UAW labor complaint for suggesting that striking auto workers should be fired. This time around, he says that the president doesn’t have the authority to fire private-sector workers and then pivots.

Instead of participating in tonight’s debate, Trump opted to give a speech in Detroit, where autoworkers are on strike against the Big Three automakers. In a recent Morning Consult poll, 54 percent of Americans said they support the strike by the United Auto Workers against General Motors, Ford and Stellantis, while just 18 percent were opposed and 28 percent didn’t have an opinion.
—Analysis by 538

Tonight, I’m watching the debate from Michigan, where I’m covering a split within the GOP. I’m looking for signs of where the party is breaking with Trump and where they’re still loyal to him. I’m also listening for the candidates’ positions on issues Republican voters in this state say they care about. They’re still angry over the COVID-19 shutdowns, they’re mad about electric cars, which they say will cost auto worker jobs, and they’re worried about the economy. That’s especially true with United Auto Workers workers striking in this state. This week, Biden joined the picket line and Trump will visit a nonunion plant.

– Analysis by Monica Potts of 538

The second debate stage will look mostly like the first, as seven of the eight candidates who took part in the initial August debate qualified for tonight’s event. And just like the first debate, front-runner Trump has decided to skip the event, despite having the polls and donors to make it. To qualify, the RNC mandated that candidates have at least 3 percent support in two national polls, or at least 3 percent in one nationwide survey and two polls from separate early states, based on polls conducted since Aug. 1 that met the RNC’s criteria for inclusion. Candidates also had to attract at least 50,000 unique contributors, with at least 200 from 20 different states or territories.

The RNC raised the polling and donor standards for the second debate, which slightly winnowed the list of participants. The new rules raised the level of support candidates needed in qualifying polls from 1 percent to 3 percent, and the number of unique donors from 40,000 to 50,000. Six of the seven qualifying candidates had little trouble meeting these polling and donor thresholds. However, although Burgum had enough donors, he struggled to poll well enough nationally to qualify. It took until the Saturday before the debate for him to get the national poll at 3 percent he needed. Meanwhile, former Texas Rep. Will Hurd and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson came up short of qualification, as Hurd lacked sufficient polls and only got to 50,000 donors on Monday, while Hutchinson didn’t have enough qualifying polls or donors.

—Analysis by Geoffrey Skelley of 538