Americans of both parties don’t expect the national deficit to shrink, according to a June poll from the Pew Research Center. Seventy percent of respondents said they expected the annual deficit to grow in the next five years, including 80 percent of Republicans and 61 percent of Democrats. Just 11 percent of respondents said they thought the deficit would be smaller in five years, including 9 percent of Republicans and 14 percent of Democrats.
—Analysis by 538

A couple times tonight, Pence has made the case for a conservative, small-government focused GOP. But as evidenced by the crickets on his initial joke at the start of the debate, there just doesn't seem to be much appetite for him in the Trumpified Republican Party. This isn't a surprise really, given he started the campaign already a villain to many Republicans because Trump had blamed him for his defeat because Pence didn't try to block certification of Biden's victory. But Pence finds himself on the edge of the stage tonight because of his low polling level, and there has really been no good polling news for him recently. His horserace numbers are flat or going down and his favorability numbers among Republicans have worsened, with only Christie having more negative ratings. When might Pence actually leave the race? No idea. But in a field full of candidates who are struggling to have a path to winning, Pence is among those with the least signs of hope.

— Analysis by Geoffrey Skelley of 538

That's a rehearsed line from DeSantis on oil drilling locations if I ever heard one.
-Jacob Rubashkin, 538

The issue of supplying aid to Ukraine as the country remains invaded by Russia has been a major source of contention among the Republican party, even holding up budget negotiations as Congress barrels toward a government shutdown.

A few answers from the GOP candidates at the debate displayed the variety of opinion among the primary field. Christie, who shares the belief of establishment Republicans, spoke about his unrelenting support for Ukraine aid.

“That was the darkest moment in world history when the Soviet Union fell. Listen, everybody, [Putin] wants to put the old band back together, and only America can stop it,” said Christie, who noted that American leadership on the conflict could display strength in other areas of foreign policy.

“Ukraine – that's a green light to China,” Christie said. “They're all connected, Stuart. They're all connected. The Chinese are paying for the Russian war in Ukraine, the Iranians who supply more sophisticated weapons, and so are the North Koreans now as well, with the encouragement of the Chinese.

Christie bashed some of his primary challengers for their opposing views: “the naivete on the stage from some of these folks is extraordinary.”

DeSantis, like the right flank of the party, said he would not embrace continually funding the “territorial dispute.”

“It's in our interest to end this war and that's what I will do as president. We are not going to have a blank check. We will not have US troops and we're going to make the Europeans do what they need to do… Meanwhile, our own country is being invaded.”

–ABC News’ Isabella Murray

In anticipation of tonight’s debate, we again partnered with The Washington Post and Ipsos to ask likely Republican primary voters what they think about tonight’s debate participants and the candidate field in general.

The 5,002 likely Republican primary voters we polled using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel expect DeSantis and Ramaswamy to perform best, out of the seven-candidate field. According to a five-point scale that we calculated using respondents’ answers (with 1 being “terrible” and 5 being “excellent”), likely voters expected both DeSantis and Ramaswamy to perform “very good” (3.44 and 3.43 out of 5, respectively). They thought Haley would perform third-best (3.40 out of 5) and Scott fourth (3.20 out of 5). All of this is fairly in line with their pre-debate expectations in August.

When it comes to which candidates respondents are interested in, Haley saw the biggest bump since our poll before last month’s debate — 31 percent are now considering voting for Haley, up from 25 percent. Although she now has the third-most prospective support, she’s still got a long way to go compared to Trump (66 percent) and DeSantis (49 percent). About 1 in 4 likely Republican primary voters are also considering voting for Ramaswamy and Pence.

We’ll be watching to see how the candidates fare tonight, and if debate watchers’ opinions on who they’re considering voting for will change after tonight’s performances.

—Analysis by Holly Fuong of 538