Republican debate highlights and analysis: Candidates squabble in Simi Valley
2024 hopefuls argued over education, spending and border security.
The second Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary, taking place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, has just come to an end.
The affair was more raucous than the first debate, which took place over a month ago. Candidates interrupted one another much more regularly and several — most notably former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — have directly criticized front-runner Donald Trump, who elected not to show up tonight. The two candidates from South Carolina, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott, went after one another for their records on spending, and seemingly everyone who had the chance to take a shot at entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy did so.
Read below for highlights, excerpts and key moments.
Latest headlines:
- South Carolina on South Carolina: Nikki Haley and Tim Scott spar several times on stage
- Brief debate answers on Ukraine reveal a rift among Republicans over the issue
- Survivor, GOP primary edition?
- Pence seems to be playing out the string
- Ramaswamy and Scott's debate over birthright citizenship devolves into chaotic exchange
Instead of participating in tonight’s debate, Trump opted to give a speech in Detroit, where autoworkers are on strike against the Big Three automakers. In a recent Morning Consult poll, 54 percent of Americans said they support the strike by the United Auto Workers against General Motors, Ford and Stellantis, while just 18 percent were opposed and 28 percent didn’t have an opinion.
—Analysis by 538
What 538 is watching for tonight: Trump and Michigan
Tonight, I’m watching the debate from Michigan, where I’m covering a split within the GOP. I’m looking for signs of where the party is breaking with Trump and where they’re still loyal to him. I’m also listening for the candidates’ positions on issues Republican voters in this state say they care about. They’re still angry over the COVID-19 shutdowns, they’re mad about electric cars, which they say will cost auto worker jobs, and they’re worried about the economy. That’s especially true with United Auto Workers workers striking in this state. This week, Biden joined the picket line and Trump will visit a nonunion plant.
– Analysis by Monica Potts of 538
What 538 is watching for tonight: DeSantis
Tonight I’ll be keeping track of DeSantis, who, despite several campaign shakeups and a steady slide in both national polls and early state surveys remains the second-place contender in the GOP primary, and who will appear at center stage this evening. DeSantis didn’t have a breakout moment last debate, though he may have been hobbled by the embarrassment of his Super PAC publicly releasing his entire debate strategy just beforehand. This time around, he may need to make a larger splash to re-convince voters he’s the best (or only) alternative to Trump. The other candidates are now nipping at his feet — he’s not even polling second in New Hampshire and South Carolina anymore — and if he becomes just another member of the pack he could lose whatever luster he has left. He’s already (started taking shots at Haley)[], who had one of the better-reviewed first debate performances and who has seen some movement in the polls. With seven candidates on stage, he’ll have limited time to make his move. Will he finally go after Trump more forcefully, or does he feel enough pressure from below to focus on Haley and the others?
—Analysis by Jacob Rubashkin, 538 contributor
What 538 is watching for tonight: Ramaswamy
I'm closely monitoring Vivek Ramaswamy. The self-proclaimed outsider made a big splash during the last debate, garnering more media attention and generating higher Google search interest than his rivals. This triggered speculation that he might experience an upswing in the polls. However, his numbers have exhibited a consistent downward trend over the last month. It's plausible that the very characteristic that initially captivated debate viewers — his confrontational and too-smart-to-be-here style of arguing — may have, ironically, alienated the average Republican voter. I'll be looking for any shifts in his rhetorical approach or substantive positions during tonight's proceedings. Like his fellow candidates, Ramaswamy needs a substantial strategic maneuver to reshape the trajectory of his campaign.
—Analysis by G. Elliott Morris
Trump leads the endorsement primary
The Republican presidential candidate with the most institutional support is the one who decided not to show up tonight: Trump. He has 364 endorsement points, according to 538’s endorsement tracker, which assigns a certain number of points to each endorsement a candidate gets depending on how prominent the endorser is. DeSantis is in second place, but way, way behind, with 43 endorsement points.
This is important because the candidate with the most endorsement points by the time of the Iowa caucuses usually wins the nomination. Given how strong Trump’s polling lead is at the moment, one of the few things that could (maybe) stop him is Republican party leaders closing ranks around another candidate. So far, there’s no sign of that happening.
—Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of 538