Moderator Dana Perino asked every candidate to write down which challenger they would “vote off the island.” DeSantis refused, prompting Perino to rework her approach, asking for his mathematical approach to winning the nomination — and of course, that’s not going to work with a politician. Christie, however, interjected that he’d be just fine voting Trump off the island.
-- Analysis by Leah Askarinam of 538

DeSantis claimed that his 1.5 million-vote victory was the largest in a Florida gubernatorial election in state history. Now, his nearly-20 percentage point margin of victory was quite large in what has historically been a swing state. But it's quite misleading to use the raw vote margin since population has changed quite a bit over time! This is especially true in a state like Florida, which has grown by leaps and bounds. For instance, a candidate would've had a tougher time winning by 1.5 million votes in 1990, when the state had a population of about 13 million, than in 2022, when the state had a population of about 22 million.

— Analysis by Geoffrey Skelley of 538

After mixing it up with her earlier, Scott goes out of his way to attack Haley again. He very much wants to be in her position — rising in the national polls, in second place in New Hampshire in some polls — right now.

—Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of 538

Pence and Trump keep trying to claim they passed the largest tax cuts in American history as if one time it might be true.

It is not.

In inflation-adjusted dollars, the 2017 tax bill is the fourth-largest since 1940. And as a percentage of GDP, it ranks seventh.
-Analysis by Aaron Sharockman, PolitiFact

Hello readers! I’m Jacob Rubashkin (not 1992 VP candidate James Stockdale), and I’m a reporter and analyst for Inside Elections, a small, nonpartisan newsletter that does in-depth coverage of House, Senate, gubernatorial and presidential races. You may have seen our “race ratings,” which we publish regularly to assess each party’s chance of winning every election around the country.

Tonight, I’ll be reporting for duty as a 538 contributor, as I’ve done for many debates, primaries, and general elections over the past two years. I’ll be providing live analysis on the events playing out on stage, and also thinking about how the course of the GOP presidential primary will affect the fight for Congress next year, when Republicans aim to win back full control of Washington, D.C. (The debate is taking place in California’s 26th District, which is Solid Democratic, but right next door is the highly competitive 27th District, where vulnerable GOP Rep. Mike Garcia might not appreciate having to run with Trump at the top of the ticket).

—Analysis by Jacob Rubashkin, 538 Contributor