Republican debate highlights and analysis: Candidates squabble in Simi Valley
2024 hopefuls argued over education, spending and border security.
The second Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary, taking place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, has just come to an end.
The affair was more raucous than the first debate, which took place over a month ago. Candidates interrupted one another much more regularly and several — most notably former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — have directly criticized front-runner Donald Trump, who elected not to show up tonight. The two candidates from South Carolina, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott, went after one another for their records on spending, and seemingly everyone who had the chance to take a shot at entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy did so.
Read below for highlights, excerpts and key moments.
Latest headlines:
- South Carolina on South Carolina: Nikki Haley and Tim Scott spar several times on stage
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- Pence seems to be playing out the string
- Ramaswamy and Scott's debate over birthright citizenship devolves into chaotic exchange
Fact-checking DeSantis’s claim that Florida’s crime rate is at a 50-year low
The data for this claim is incomplete. Crime figures are low in Florida, but DeSantis’ figure comes from a database containing information from law enforcement agencies that represent only around 57 percent of the state’s population, a Sept. 20 NBC News report found.
The patchy data is related to Florida’s transition to incident-based crime reporting, the new federal standard, rather than the summary-based reports it has used since the 1970s. With summary reporting, if one incident resulted in multiple crimes, only the most serious would be reported. In 2021, the federal government stopped accepting this type of data, and now requires states to report each crime.
FBI’s crime reporting database doesn’t support DeSantis’ figure either. Only 48 out of 757 Florida law enforcement agencies participated in the FBI’s data collection in 2021. The numbers appear to be similar for 2022, according to a Marshall Project analysis.
-Analysis by Aaron Sharockman, PolitiFact
Haley was just asked about hiring more police officers. According to a May poll conducted by Ipsos for Reuters, 91 percent of Republicans said they were more likely to support a presidential candidate in 2024 who “supports increasing police funding to fight crime.” 53 percent said they were much more likely, while 38 percent said they were somewhat more likely. Just 9 percent said they were less likely to vote for such a candidate.
—Analysis by 538
Fact-checking Pence’s claim that Trump administration reduced ‘illegal immigration and asylum abuse by 90 percent’
This is False.
Pence has used this 90 percent drop statistic many times, but has never explained where it comes from.
When the COVID-19 pandemic started, immigration drastically dropped worldwide as governments enacted policies limiting people’s movement. In the U.S., Trump instituted Title 42, a public health policy that authorized the Border Patrol to immediately return most immigrants back to Mexico. The increased use of this policy decreased the use of other programs, including "Remain in Mexico."
U.S. Customs and Border Protection during the pandemic also adopted a new way of reporting migrant encounters. Before the pandemic, it only reported enforcement actions under immigration law; its data during the pandemic includes actions taken under both immigration law and the public health policy. Therefore, 2020 data isn’t entirely comparable to pre-pandemic numbers.
Accounting for challenges in data comparisons, our review found an increase of 300 percent in illegal immigration from Trump’s first full month in office, February 2017, to his last full month, December 2020.
One way to get close to Pence’s alleged 90 percent decrease in illegal immigration is by comparing data from May 2019, the month during the administration that had the highest apprehensions, to April 2020, the month with the lowest enforcement actions in calendar year 2020.
But that’s a severely cherry-picked time period.
-Analysis by Aaron Sharockman, PolitiFact
For reference, Nathaniel, after last month's debate, 44 percent of Republican debate watchers felt that the moderators did an excellent or very good job. 39 percent said the moderators did about average, and 14 percent said they did poor or terrible.
—Analysis by Holly Fuong of 538
Who Am I? Why Am I Here?
Hello readers! I’m Jacob Rubashkin (not 1992 VP candidate James Stockdale), and I’m a reporter and analyst for Inside Elections, a small, nonpartisan newsletter that does in-depth coverage of House, Senate, gubernatorial and presidential races. You may have seen our “race ratings,” which we publish regularly to assess each party’s chance of winning every election around the country.
Tonight, I’ll be reporting for duty as a 538 contributor, as I’ve done for many debates, primaries, and general elections over the past two years. I’ll be providing live analysis on the events playing out on stage, and also thinking about how the course of the GOP presidential primary will affect the fight for Congress next year, when Republicans aim to win back full control of Washington, D.C. (The debate is taking place in California’s 26th District, which is Solid Democratic, but right next door is the highly competitive 27th District, where vulnerable GOP Rep. Mike Garcia might not appreciate having to run with Trump at the top of the ticket).
—Analysis by Jacob Rubashkin, 538 Contributor