South Carolina, Nevada, North Dakota primaries and Ohio special election 2024: Nancy Mace, Sam Brown win
Democrats nearly won a safely Republican congressional seat.
June 11 was another packed primary day, as voters in South Carolina, Maine, North Dakota and Nevada weighed in on who will make the ballot this fall. We had our eyes on a slew of Republican primaries on Tuesday, including several competitive contests for U.S. House seats, as well as contests to pick Nevada's GOP Senate nominee and effectively pick the next governor of North Dakota.
In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace's Trumpian pivot didn't cost her, as she handily fended off an establishment-aligned primary challenger. Fellow incumbent Rep. William Timmons, who was looking vulnerable after an infidelity scandal, also came out ahead in a closer race against his right-wing challenger. In North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Julie Fedorchak became the first non-incumbent woman this cycle to win a GOP primary for a safely red seat. In Nevada, Republican voters chose Sam Brown as their candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen this fall.
Finally, a special election is set to give House Republicans one more seat of breathing room, as voters in Ohio's 6th District filled the seat vacated by Rep. Bill Johnson's departure in January — though not without some unexpected suspense.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Nevada matters, but maybe not in the House
National Republicans are extremely cool on Nevada's three competitive House races this cycle, and I expect that won’t change after tonight's results in the GOP primaries. To the extent there was hopefulness around any of the candidates, it was Marty O'Donnell in the 3rd District and Flemming Larsen in the 1st District, who are both wealthy and have the capacity to self-fund campaigns. But neither man looks like they're going win at this point, leaving the GOP with a retread candidate in the 1st District and an untested conservative commentator in the 3rd District.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Nevada's state legislature has more women than any other state
Fun fact: Nevada's state legislature is 60 percent women, making it the state with the greatest share of female representation at that level in the country. (Next is Arizona, with 51 percent.) Nevada's congressional delegation is also majority women. Both of their senators are women, and two of their four representatives are women. All are Democrats. As Nathaniel just mentioned, Rosen, one of the female senators in Nevada, will face Brown in November, in what is expected to be a close race.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
First vote drop shows Johnson with an early lead in Nevada's 3rd
As we wrote earlier, Nevada's 3rd congressional district is likely to be one of the most competitive races in the state this fall, with 7 candidates vying to take on Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in this competitive district in the suburbs south of Las Vegas. With 79 percent of the expected vote reported, Johnson, a think-tank founder and policy analyst, has an early lead with 31 percent of the vote so far, according to the AP. Second is Schwartz, with 24 percent of the vote. Schwartz has been running in, and losing, Republican primaries in Nevada since 2012 — most recently a 2022 bid for lieutenant governor. Brian Nadell, who is on our list of anti-abortion candidates, is way behind, with 1 percent of the vote.
—Monica Potts, 538
Brown wins in Nevada
And the AP has projected the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Nevada for Brown. He'll take on Rosen in the fall in what will be one of the most competitive Senate races of 2024. In fact, considering the weakness of some of the other candidates Republicans will probably nominate for Senate, I'd consider Nevada to be the party's best pick-up opportunity outside the Big Three red states (West Virginia, Montana and Ohio).
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
A potentially competitive Republican primary to become North Dakota's next representative
With Rep. Armstrong running for the Senate, North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District is up for grabs, and the two main contenders in the Republican primary look to be Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak and former state Rep. Rick Becker. Fedorchak has a solid electoral record, having won three statewide races to retain her current office, and she earned Trump's endorsement in late May. Meanwhile, Becker has a complicated relationship with the GOP: During his legislative tenure, Becker founded a far-right caucus, and in 2022, he actually ran for Senate as an independent against Republican Sen. John Hoeven. That campaign left Becker ineligible for the state GOP endorsement vote in April, but his supporters spoiled their ballots to give the endorsement to a minor candidate instead of Fedorchak.
Meanwhile, Becker and his allies have mostly kept up with Fedorchak in the money race. Fedorchak has brought in $979,000, compared with Becker's $911,000, although Becker self-funded $550,000 of his haul. Yet outside groups have spent slightly more promoting Becker or attacking Fedorchak ($1.6 million) than on supporting Fedorchak or opposing Becker ($1.3 million). Two surveys have shown a close race, too: An early May poll from DFM Research/North Dakota United put Becker ahead 29 percent to 26 percent, while a late May survey from WPA Intelligence/North Dakota News Cooperative found Fedorchak leading 32 percent to 25 percent. However, both polls predated Trump's endorsement, and, in a possible signal that Fedorchak has the upper hand, the pro-Becker Club for Growth canceled a planned ad buy for the final week of the campaign.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538