South Carolina, Nevada, North Dakota primaries and Ohio special election 2024: Nancy Mace, Sam Brown win
Democrats nearly won a safely Republican congressional seat.
June 11 was another packed primary day, as voters in South Carolina, Maine, North Dakota and Nevada weighed in on who will make the ballot this fall. We had our eyes on a slew of Republican primaries on Tuesday, including several competitive contests for U.S. House seats, as well as contests to pick Nevada's GOP Senate nominee and effectively pick the next governor of North Dakota.
In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace's Trumpian pivot didn't cost her, as she handily fended off an establishment-aligned primary challenger. Fellow incumbent Rep. William Timmons, who was looking vulnerable after an infidelity scandal, also came out ahead in a closer race against his right-wing challenger. In North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Julie Fedorchak became the first non-incumbent woman this cycle to win a GOP primary for a safely red seat. In Nevada, Republican voters chose Sam Brown as their candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen this fall.
Finally, a special election is set to give House Republicans one more seat of breathing room, as voters in Ohio's 6th District filled the seat vacated by Rep. Bill Johnson's departure in January — though not without some unexpected suspense.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Will Biggs even stay in the race for the runoff?
As Meredith has noted, Biggs is one of the House GOP’s best chances yet to add a new woman to their caucus. However, I wonder if she will even stay in the race for the June 25 runoff. As David Bernstein notes on BlueSky, twice so far this year (in North Carolina’s 6th and 13th), a Republican candidate has made it to a runoff against a candidate endorsed by Trump only to drop out of the race because they faced such low odds of winning.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
It's a runoff in South Carolina's 3rd!
The AP is projecting the GOP race to replace retiring Rep. Jeff Duncan in South Carolina's 3rd District will go to a runoff, with pastor Mark Burns and Air National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs squaring off. With 85 percent of the expected votes counted, Burns currently leads with 32 percent of the vote, with Biggs tailing him with 29 percent of the vote. With those margins, it's anyone's race in two weeks!
—Kaleigh Rogers, 538
Armstrong projected to win Republican gubernatorial primary
With 20 percent of the expected vote in, the Associated Press is projecting that Armstrong will win the North Dakota Republican gubernatorial primary, with 67 percent of the vote so far, compared to Miller's 33 percent. It's a quick result for such a contentious race, where the candidates shared many agreements over policy. Armstrong is likely to triumph over Piepkorn in November in this very red state (although we don't know who would win a singing contest.)
—Monica Potts, 538
Fedorchak opens up an early lead in North Dakota
Only about 17 percent of the expected vote is in for North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District Republican primary, but the Trump- and Burgum-endorsed Fedorchak has opened up an early lead with about 44 percent of the vote so far, according to the AP compared to Becker's 31 percent. As Geoffrey noted in his race preview, a third candidate, Balasz, technically has the endorsement of the state GOP due to a rebellion by Becker supporters upset that he was ineligible for endorsement; Balasz only has about 5 percent of the vote so far.
—Monica Potts, 538
A potentially competitive Republican primary to become North Dakota's next representative
With Rep. Armstrong running for the Senate, North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District is up for grabs, and the two main contenders in the Republican primary look to be Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak and former state Rep. Rick Becker. Fedorchak has a solid electoral record, having won three statewide races to retain her current office, and she earned Trump's endorsement in late May. Meanwhile, Becker has a complicated relationship with the GOP: During his legislative tenure, Becker founded a far-right caucus, and in 2022, he actually ran for Senate as an independent against Republican Sen. John Hoeven. That campaign left Becker ineligible for the state GOP endorsement vote in April, but his supporters spoiled their ballots to give the endorsement to a minor candidate instead of Fedorchak.
Meanwhile, Becker and his allies have mostly kept up with Fedorchak in the money race. Fedorchak has brought in $979,000, compared with Becker's $911,000, although Becker self-funded $550,000 of his haul. Yet outside groups have spent slightly more promoting Becker or attacking Fedorchak ($1.6 million) than on supporting Fedorchak or opposing Becker ($1.3 million). Two surveys have shown a close race, too: An early May poll from DFM Research/North Dakota United put Becker ahead 29 percent to 26 percent, while a late May survey from WPA Intelligence/North Dakota News Cooperative found Fedorchak leading 32 percent to 25 percent. However, both polls predated Trump's endorsement, and, in a possible signal that Fedorchak has the upper hand, the pro-Becker Club for Growth canceled a planned ad buy for the final week of the campaign.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538