South Carolina, Nevada, North Dakota primaries and Ohio special election 2024: Nancy Mace, Sam Brown win
Democrats nearly won a safely Republican congressional seat.
June 11 was another packed primary day, as voters in South Carolina, Maine, North Dakota and Nevada weighed in on who will make the ballot this fall. We had our eyes on a slew of Republican primaries on Tuesday, including several competitive contests for U.S. House seats, as well as contests to pick Nevada's GOP Senate nominee and effectively pick the next governor of North Dakota.
In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace's Trumpian pivot didn't cost her, as she handily fended off an establishment-aligned primary challenger. Fellow incumbent Rep. William Timmons, who was looking vulnerable after an infidelity scandal, also came out ahead in a closer race against his right-wing challenger. In North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Julie Fedorchak became the first non-incumbent woman this cycle to win a GOP primary for a safely red seat. In Nevada, Republican voters chose Sam Brown as their candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen this fall.
Finally, a special election is set to give House Republicans one more seat of breathing room, as voters in Ohio's 6th District filled the seat vacated by Rep. Bill Johnson's departure in January — though not without some unexpected suspense.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Final thought: Incumbents still haven’t lost, but there have been many close calls
My takeaway from tonight is that, once again, we saw some close shaves for incumbent members of Congress. Incumbents may be heartened by the fact that, so far, only one of them has lost renomination this cycle, and that was in an incumbent-versus-incumbent race caused by Alabama redistricting, so one of them had to lose. However, they shouldn't get too comfortable. Many incumbents have won renomination with pretty uninspiring vote shares in the 50s or 60s — Timmons is only the latest example. Therefore, I'm pretty confident it's only a matter of time until one of them loses. (In fact, I recommend tuning into our live blog on June 25 to see if Rep. Jamaal Bowman becomes one of them.)
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
What are your takeaways from tonight?
With only three outstanding House races unprojected in Nevada, we're getting ready to wrap up the old live blog soon. Start thinking those final thoughts, folks, and send 'em here!
—Tia Yang, 538
Timmons pulls out a win in South Carolina
We just got the last tranche of votes from Greenville County in South Carolina's 4th District, and they weren't enough to put Morgan over the top. With virtually all of the vote counted, then, per the AP, it's Timmons 52 percent, Morgan 48 percent, and Timmons has been projected as the winner. In the end, his race was much closer than Mace's, despite her getting all the attention!
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Don't forget about Yucca Mountain, Jacob
Brown could also find himself in hot water this fall because he used to support using Yucca Mountain, a site in Nevada, as a nuclear waste site. That's a no-no in Nevada politics, and Brown has since backtracked on that position, but expect it to come up in Democratic ads a lot.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
A potentially competitive Republican primary to become North Dakota's next representative
With Rep. Armstrong running for the Senate, North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District is up for grabs, and the two main contenders in the Republican primary look to be Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak and former state Rep. Rick Becker. Fedorchak has a solid electoral record, having won three statewide races to retain her current office, and she earned Trump's endorsement in late May. Meanwhile, Becker has a complicated relationship with the GOP: During his legislative tenure, Becker founded a far-right caucus, and in 2022, he actually ran for Senate as an independent against Republican Sen. John Hoeven. That campaign left Becker ineligible for the state GOP endorsement vote in April, but his supporters spoiled their ballots to give the endorsement to a minor candidate instead of Fedorchak.
Meanwhile, Becker and his allies have mostly kept up with Fedorchak in the money race. Fedorchak has brought in $979,000, compared with Becker's $911,000, although Becker self-funded $550,000 of his haul. Yet outside groups have spent slightly more promoting Becker or attacking Fedorchak ($1.6 million) than on supporting Fedorchak or opposing Becker ($1.3 million). Two surveys have shown a close race, too: An early May poll from DFM Research/North Dakota United put Becker ahead 29 percent to 26 percent, while a late May survey from WPA Intelligence/North Dakota News Cooperative found Fedorchak leading 32 percent to 25 percent. However, both polls predated Trump's endorsement, and, in a possible signal that Fedorchak has the upper hand, the pro-Becker Club for Growth canceled a planned ad buy for the final week of the campaign.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538