Upstate, the race to replace retiring Rep. Jeff Duncan has essentially fallen into a close three-person race. With 63 percent of the expected votes counted, Trump-endorsed Burns is at 31 percent, Biggs has 30 percent and Jones has 20 percent. Toss in double-digit support for Kevin Bishop, the recently retired communications director for Sen. Lindsey Graham, and it's enough to split the vote in a way that makes it very hard for any candidate to break the majority threshold. Whoever finishes tonight in the top two slots will very likely face off again in a runoff election in two weeks' time. It's been interesting to see the vote regional breakdown as ballots are counted. Jones is leading in Laurens County with 52 percent of the vote there — no surprise, as this is the part of the district that Jones represents in the state House. Burns is leading in Pickens, Abbeville (trivia: this is the first county in the U.S., alphabetically), and McCormick Counties — the first two are slightly more conservative, and the first is his home county.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

As we've noted, Mace was one of eight Republicans who voted to oust McCarthy from the speakership last year. Two (Ken Buck and Matt Rosendale) have already resigned or retired from Congress, and McCarthy allies were targeting many of the other six for defeat in primaries this year. Mace was the first of these to face voters, and she obviously survived, so pro-McCarthy forces are 0-for-1.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

The AP has projected that Nancy Mace will win the GOP nomination in South Carolina’s 1st District. It’s an early call for the embattled congresswoman who has angered both Trump allies and House GOP leadership over her two terms in Congress. She leads her opponent, 58 percent to 29 percent, with just over a quarter of the vote counted. Mace will be the favorite in the general election too, after the Supreme Court halted a lower court’s ruling that her district needed to be redrawn.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Kaleigh, you raise an interesting question. Election day voters do tend to be more MAGA in primaries, similar to how they’re more Republican in general elections. (This isn’t surprising — Trump is the one who cast unfounded aspersions on the security of mail voting.) So I wonder who those votes will benefit today in South Carolina’s 4th. Timmons has Trump’s endorsement, but temperamentally, he’s not very bomb-throwy. Morgan, a member of the state House’s Freedom Caucus, fits that description much better, so maybe he’ll be the pick of election day voters? We shall see.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

In the solidly red 4th District around Greenville, third-term Rep. William Timmons is another Republican incumbent dealing with a high-profile primary challenger. Though Timmons is a reliable conservative, state Rep. Adam Morgan could successfully run even further to Timmons's right, seeing as he chairs the state House's Freedom Caucus — modeled after the congressional caucus, whose membership encouraged Morgan's bid and whose campaign arm has endorsed him. Moreover, Timmons still seems to be plagued by a scandal that jeopardized his reelection bid two years ago: In 2022, amid allegations that Timmons was unfaithful to his wife, he only won renomination with 53 percent against weak primary opposition.

One sign that Timmons is feeling the heat is that he's done something unusual in a GOP primary: He's attacked his opponent for being too extreme on abortion rights, running an ad criticizing Morgan for voting "to jail rape and incest victims" who sought abortions — a vote Morgan has defended as "an attempt to close a loophole." Timmons's maneuver could be an attempt to draw Democratic and independent votes in South Carolina's open primary system, even though the incumbent supports a 15-week federal abortion ban.

Timmons still has some notable advantages working for him. He's outraised Morgan $1.9 million to $578,000, helped out by a $900,000 loan to his campaign (Morgan has self-funded nearly half his campaign, too). Outside groups, mainly the pro-cryptocurrency Defend American Jobs super PAC, have spent $1.9 million to boost Timmons, compared with just $327,000 in outside spending supporting Morgan. And here, too, Trump has endorsed the incumbent, which Timmons and his allies have played up in campaign ads. Still, Morgan has emphasized his Republican bona fides, pitching himself as a Christian and "conservative fighter" in his ads.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538