South Carolina, Nevada, North Dakota primaries and Ohio special election 2024: Nancy Mace, Sam Brown win
Democrats nearly won a safely Republican congressional seat.
June 11 was another packed primary day, as voters in South Carolina, Maine, North Dakota and Nevada weighed in on who will make the ballot this fall. We had our eyes on a slew of Republican primaries on Tuesday, including several competitive contests for U.S. House seats, as well as contests to pick Nevada's GOP Senate nominee and effectively pick the next governor of North Dakota.
In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace's Trumpian pivot didn't cost her, as she handily fended off an establishment-aligned primary challenger. Fellow incumbent Rep. William Timmons, who was looking vulnerable after an infidelity scandal, also came out ahead in a closer race against his right-wing challenger. In North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Julie Fedorchak became the first non-incumbent woman this cycle to win a GOP primary for a safely red seat. In Nevada, Republican voters chose Sam Brown as their candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen this fall.
Finally, a special election is set to give House Republicans one more seat of breathing room, as voters in Ohio's 6th District filled the seat vacated by Rep. Bill Johnson's departure in January — though not without some unexpected suspense.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
We've got early results in the GOP race to replace Duncan in South Carolina's 3rd District
With 18 percent of expected vote counted, Air National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs has a narrow lead with 30 percent of the vote, ahead of pastor Mark Burns and state Rep. Stewart Jones, who are currently at 28 percent and almost 20 percent, respectively. This is not altogether unsurprising, given there was not a ton of daylight between these candidates as far as their political leanings. Burns does have Trump’s endorsement, but Jones has been representing part of the region in the state legislature since 2019, and Biggs has a fundraising advantage. It could very well go to a runoff, but we’ll see if Biggs can grow her lead, or if one of the others takes the lead.
—Kaleigh Rogers, 538
South Carolina GOP state senators who voted against abortion bans are in tough renomination fights
Three Republican state senators in South Carolina are facing tough primary challenges after they voted against abortion bans in the state. Katrina Shealy from the 23rd district, Penry Gustafson from the 27th, and Sandy Senn from the 41st all filibustered to block a total abortion ban in April, and all three drew primary challenges. While there's no votes in yet for Shealy's district, the votes reported so far in the other two districts suggest tough races. With 11 percent of the expected vote reported, Gustafson is currently losing to Lancaster County Councilman Allen Blackmon by a whopping 71 percentage points. In the 41st, with 17 percent of the expected vote reported, Senn is ahead of state Rep. Matt Leber by just 2 percentage points.
Statewide, however, the focus on abortion may not help Republicans in November. According to May polling from Winthrop University, South Carolina voters oppose a 6 week abortion ban by 17 percentage points, 31-48.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Polls are now closed in Maine and most of North Dakota
It's 8 p.m. Eastern, and polls are now closed in Maine and most counties in North Dakota. (Voting hours in the Peace Garden State vary by municipality, with polls largely closing at either 8 p.m. or 9 p.m. Eastern.) We'll be bringing you results from races in both these states shortly.
—Tia Yang, 538
Rulli on the ropes?
And remember, Nathaniel, Rulli was the more moderate of the two GOP candidates vying to replace former Rep. Bill Johnson in Congress. His opponent, state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus, attacked him for his position on gay rights and made a big deal over his past as a "self proclaimed raging liberal" in the 1990s.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Polls are closed in the Ohio special election
It's 7:30 p.m. Eastern, which means polls are now closed in Ohio. There are no primaries in the Buckeye State tonight, but there is a special election in the state's 6th District, which was represented by Republican Rep. Bill Johnson until January, when he resigned to lead Youngstown State University.
According to Daily Kos Elections, Ohio's 6th District voted for Trump 64 percent to 35 percent in 2020, so Republican state Sen. Michael Rulli should easily defeat Democratic Air Force veteran Michael Kripchak there today. However, we'll still be keeping an eye on Rulli's winning margin as an indicator of the national political mood. Special election performance over a partisan baseline has historically been a good predictor of general election outcomes.
That said, individual special elections can be idiosyncratic, so you really need to consider today's result in Ohio's 6th alongside the other special congressional elections we've had this cycle. So far, Democrats have overperformed the weighted partisan leans of the districts in those elections by an average of 4 percentage points. We'll see how much — or whether — Ohio's 6th moves that average.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538