South Carolina, Nevada, North Dakota primaries and Ohio special election 2024: Nancy Mace, Sam Brown win
Democrats nearly won a safely Republican congressional seat.
June 11 was another packed primary day, as voters in South Carolina, Maine, North Dakota and Nevada weighed in on who will make the ballot this fall. We had our eyes on a slew of Republican primaries on Tuesday, including several competitive contests for U.S. House seats, as well as contests to pick Nevada's GOP Senate nominee and effectively pick the next governor of North Dakota.
In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace's Trumpian pivot didn't cost her, as she handily fended off an establishment-aligned primary challenger. Fellow incumbent Rep. William Timmons, who was looking vulnerable after an infidelity scandal, also came out ahead in a closer race against his right-wing challenger. In North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Julie Fedorchak became the first non-incumbent woman this cycle to win a GOP primary for a safely red seat. In Nevada, Republican voters chose Sam Brown as their candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen this fall.
Finally, a special election is set to give House Republicans one more seat of breathing room, as voters in Ohio's 6th District filled the seat vacated by Rep. Bill Johnson's departure in January — though not without some unexpected suspense.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
North Dakotans on track to set a maximum age for their congressional delegation
Also on the ballot tonight in North Dakota: a ballot measure that would block anyone from being elected or appointed to the House or Senate from the state if they would turn 81 before their term ended. With 19 percent of the expected vote reporting, the measure is currently supported by 62 percent of the electorate. If the results hold, it would become the first state in the nation with a maximum age for elected office.
The only preelection polling we saw on this measure came from RMG Research/U.S. Term Limits in April/May, and showed voters in support of the measure by 65 percentage points, 78 to 13 percent. So while the measure may be somewhat underperforming, it's still on track to become the law of the land in North Dakota — if it can survive the inevitable legal challenges.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Will Biggs even stay in the race for the runoff?
As Meredith has noted, Biggs is one of the House GOP’s best chances yet to add a new woman to their caucus. However, I wonder if she will even stay in the race for the June 25 runoff. As David Bernstein notes on BlueSky, twice so far this year (in North Carolina’s 6th and 13th), a Republican candidate has made it to a runoff against a candidate endorsed by Trump only to drop out of the race because they faced such low odds of winning.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
It's a runoff in South Carolina's 3rd!
The AP is projecting the GOP race to replace retiring Rep. Jeff Duncan in South Carolina's 3rd District will go to a runoff, with pastor Mark Burns and Air National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs squaring off. With 85 percent of the expected votes counted, Burns currently leads with 32 percent of the vote, with Biggs tailing him with 29 percent of the vote. With those margins, it's anyone's race in two weeks!
—Kaleigh Rogers, 538
Armstrong projected to win Republican gubernatorial primary
With 20 percent of the expected vote in, the Associated Press is projecting that Armstrong will win the North Dakota Republican gubernatorial primary, with 67 percent of the vote so far, compared to Miller's 33 percent. It's a quick result for such a contentious race, where the candidates shared many agreements over policy. Armstrong is likely to triumph over Piepkorn in November in this very red state (although we don't know who would win a singing contest.)
—Monica Potts, 538
Rulli projected to win in Ohio’s 6th
With 65 percent of the expected vote counted in Ohio’s 6th, per the AP, Rulli has now taken the lead, 52 percent to 48 percent. And somewhat surprisingly, the AP has also projected the race for Rulli, no doubt because they expect the remaining votes — which were mostly cast on election day — to favor him.
However, the county-level results here are very unusual, with some of them exhibiting the kind of Democratic overperformance that, if replicated districtwide, would have led to a Kripchak win. For example, the AP estimates that virtually all the votes are counted in Washington County, and Rulli leads there by just 6 points. In 2020, Trump won Washington County by 41 points! And Kripchak actually won the 6th District portion of Tuscarawas County, which Trump carried by 33 points, by 12 points!
It's always possible that these county-level swings won't replicate districtwide — indeed, that's what the AP is predicting based on their projection. But regardless of the final outcome, it's clear that Kripchak did shockingly well for a Democrat in Ohio’s 6th.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538