South Carolina, Nevada, North Dakota primaries and Ohio special election 2024: Nancy Mace, Sam Brown win
Democrats nearly won a safely Republican congressional seat.
June 11 was another packed primary day, as voters in South Carolina, Maine, North Dakota and Nevada weighed in on who will make the ballot this fall. We had our eyes on a slew of Republican primaries on Tuesday, including several competitive contests for U.S. House seats, as well as contests to pick Nevada's GOP Senate nominee and effectively pick the next governor of North Dakota.
In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace's Trumpian pivot didn't cost her, as she handily fended off an establishment-aligned primary challenger. Fellow incumbent Rep. William Timmons, who was looking vulnerable after an infidelity scandal, also came out ahead in a closer race against his right-wing challenger. In North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Julie Fedorchak became the first non-incumbent woman this cycle to win a GOP primary for a safely red seat. In Nevada, Republican voters chose Sam Brown as their candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen this fall.
Finally, a special election is set to give House Republicans one more seat of breathing room, as voters in Ohio's 6th District filled the seat vacated by Rep. Bill Johnson's departure in January — though not without some unexpected suspense.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
North Dakota Congressional age limit measure is projected to pass
According to the AP, the Congressional age limit ballot measure in North Dakota is projected to pass. With 70 percent of the expected vote reported, support for the measure is at 61 percent. As I mentioned earlier, this makes North Dakota the first state in the nation to enact such a law, but it undoubtedly will face legal challenges in the coming years.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Speaking of anti-abortion Republicans in South Carolina ...
I checked back in on the three "sister senators" in the state Senate I mentioned earlier, who banded together to successfully filibuster against a near-total abortion ban in the state. According to the AP, Gustafson is projected to lose renomination in the state's 27th to Blackmon. In the 23rd, Shealy is 4 percentage points ahead of Carlisle Kennedy with 88 percent of the expected vote reporting. But with Shealy holding only 40 percent of the vote so far, that race looks to be heading to a runoff. And in the state's 41st, we've got quite the nail-biter: With 80 percent of the expected vote reporting, Senn is behind Leber by just 0.4 points. All together, it looks like all three women are in danger of losing their seats to anti-abortion male challengers.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Checking in on anti-abortion candidates in South Carolina
Biggs was one of the anti-abortion candidates we were watching tonight, and her advance to a runoff in the 3rd district primary against Burns gives her something like a win — though as others have noted, she's an underdog in that contest. Templeton lost to Mace in the 1st district, while incumbent Timmons is solidly leading in his primary in the 4th district, according to the AP. With 56 percent of the vote so far and nearly three-fourths of the expected vote reporting, AP projects that Buckner will win his 6th District primary.
—Monica Potts, 538
Fedorchak projected to win in North Dakota congressional primary
The AP is projecting that Fedorchak will win the Republican primary in North Dakota's at-large congressional district race. With 72 percent of the expected vote reporting, she has 46 percent of the vote so far. Her nearest challenger, Becker, has 29 percent of the vote so far.
—Monica Potts, 538
So far, 2024 has been a good year for House incumbents
After tonight, we'll have seen downballot primaries in 26 states, and so far the only incumbent that has lost renomination is Jerry Carl, who due to redistricting had to run in an incumbent-on-incumbent battle against Barry Moore in Alabama's 1st district. With Mace's race now called in her favor and Timmons ahead by around 10 percentage points, it looks like tonight might continue the streak.
However, that's not too unusual. Based on my quick calculations, on average over the last 7 election cycles, just 8 incumbents who faced a primary challenger lost renomination, and in 4 of those 7 cycles, there were 5 or fewer incumbents that failed to secure their party's nomination.
But we may be on track to break the incumbent winning streak as early as next week, when Virginia representative Bob Good faces state senator John McGuire, a Trump endorsed challenger. Polls show that race up in the air, with two polls conducted since Trump's endorsement showing nearly opposite results. And the following week, Democrat Jamaal Bowman of New York's 16th faces a very tough challenge from Westchester County Executive George Latimer. So don't expect Jerry Carl to be the lone incumbent loser when all is said and done.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538