South Carolina, Nevada, North Dakota primaries and Ohio special election 2024: Nancy Mace, Sam Brown win
Democrats nearly won a safely Republican congressional seat.
June 11 was another packed primary day, as voters in South Carolina, Maine, North Dakota and Nevada weighed in on who will make the ballot this fall. We had our eyes on a slew of Republican primaries on Tuesday, including several competitive contests for U.S. House seats, as well as contests to pick Nevada's GOP Senate nominee and effectively pick the next governor of North Dakota.
In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace's Trumpian pivot didn't cost her, as she handily fended off an establishment-aligned primary challenger. Fellow incumbent Rep. William Timmons, who was looking vulnerable after an infidelity scandal, also came out ahead in a closer race against his right-wing challenger. In North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Julie Fedorchak became the first non-incumbent woman this cycle to win a GOP primary for a safely red seat. In Nevada, Republican voters chose Sam Brown as their candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen this fall.
Finally, a special election is set to give House Republicans one more seat of breathing room, as voters in Ohio's 6th District filled the seat vacated by Rep. Bill Johnson's departure in January — though not without some unexpected suspense.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
South Carolina GOP state senators who voted against abortion bans are in tough renomination fights
Three Republican state senators in South Carolina are facing tough primary challenges after they voted against abortion bans in the state. Katrina Shealy from the 23rd district, Penry Gustafson from the 27th, and Sandy Senn from the 41st all filibustered to block a total abortion ban in April, and all three drew primary challenges. While there's no votes in yet for Shealy's district, the votes reported so far in the other two districts suggest tough races. With 11 percent of the expected vote reported, Gustafson is currently losing to Lancaster County Councilman Allen Blackmon by a whopping 71 percentage points. In the 41st, with 17 percent of the expected vote reported, Senn is ahead of state Rep. Matt Leber by just 2 percentage points.
Statewide, however, the focus on abortion may not help Republicans in November. According to May polling from Winthrop University, South Carolina voters oppose a 6 week abortion ban by 17 percentage points, 31-48.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Polls are now closed in Maine and most of North Dakota
It's 8 p.m. Eastern, and polls are now closed in Maine and most counties in North Dakota. (Voting hours in the Peace Garden State vary by municipality, with polls largely closing at either 8 p.m. or 9 p.m. Eastern.) We'll be bringing you results from races in both these states shortly.
—Tia Yang, 538
Rulli on the ropes?
And remember, Nathaniel, Rulli was the more moderate of the two GOP candidates vying to replace former Rep. Bill Johnson in Congress. His opponent, state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus, attacked him for his position on gay rights and made a big deal over his past as a "self proclaimed raging liberal" in the 1990s.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
First results in Ohio’s 6th are notably good for Democrats
With 16 percent of the expected vote counted in Ohio’s 6th District, Democrat Michael Kripchak is actually leading Republican Michael Rulli 62 percent to 38 percent, despite the district’s dark-red hue. Now, don’t get too excited, Democrats: Ohio counts early and absentee ballots first, and those, of course, skew toward Democrats. Still, some of these numbers are very impressive for Kripchak. For example, he won the early/absentee vote in Jefferson County, which voted for Trump by 39 points, 61 percent to 39 percent. Rulli is still favored here because this district is SO red, but this bears watching …
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
So far, 2024 has been a good year for House incumbents
After tonight, we'll have seen downballot primaries in 26 states, and so far the only incumbent that has lost renomination is Jerry Carl, who due to redistricting had to run in an incumbent-on-incumbent battle against Barry Moore in Alabama's 1st district. With Mace's race now called in her favor and Timmons ahead by around 10 percentage points, it looks like tonight might continue the streak.
However, that's not too unusual. Based on my quick calculations, on average over the last 7 election cycles, just 8 incumbents who faced a primary challenger lost renomination, and in 4 of those 7 cycles, there were 5 or fewer incumbents that failed to secure their party's nomination.
But we may be on track to break the incumbent winning streak as early as next week, when Virginia representative Bob Good faces state senator John McGuire, a Trump endorsed challenger. Polls show that race up in the air, with two polls conducted since Trump's endorsement showing nearly opposite results. And the following week, Democrat Jamaal Bowman of New York's 16th faces a very tough challenge from Westchester County Executive George Latimer. So don't expect Jerry Carl to be the lone incumbent loser when all is said and done.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538