I'm not yet sold on Brown being a better than average Senate candidate. I think he's done a good job of staying under the radar relative to other GOP nominees in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Arizona, and avoided some of the missteps those candidates have made. (It doesn't hurt that Nevada is the perpetual redheaded stepchild of the Senate battlefield, always there but never paid much attention.) But he's still relatively untested. His political record includes failed bids for Texas state House a decade ago and for Senate two years ago. If he does ultimately win, I think it has a lot more to do with Trump's performance in the state than Brown's special strength.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Nathaniel mentioned that Rosen's senate seat could be the GOP's best pick-up opportunity outside the Big Three red states (West Virginia, Montana and Ohio). I think that's right. Brown doesn't seem to have any strange local scandals (unlike Sheehy in Montana, for instance)>, so the Nevada GOP didn't Dr. Oz itself here. Although Brown isn't originally from Nevada, he has a compelling personal story as a combat veteran, who suffered third-degree burns from a 2008 roadside bomb explosion in Afghanistan.

Of course, Nevada Democrats have dug up a few possible scandals and will focus on the abortion issue. On his website, Brown mentions that he is personally pro-life, but would not support national abortion ban because it would overturn the decision of Nevadans, so he's trying to thread that needle. Brown's wife has also been telling her abortion story so the Brown campaign must recognize that this will be a salient issue.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

In the 11 races where Trump has endorsed a candidate, eight of Trump’s picks have won, including Sam Brown in the Nevada Senate GOP primary. One of the former president’s endorsees is going to a runoff, and the remaining two — including John Lee in Nevada’s 4th District — are leading their races. This adds to Trump’s, as he put it recently, “very unblemished” track record. So far this primary season, only one of Trump’s picks for congressional or gubernatorial races has lost (Christine Serrano Glassner, whom Trump endorsed for the GOP Senate primary in New Jersey), so tonight may very well continue that trend.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

In Nevada's 4th District, former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee is leading the GOP primary, 51 to 42 percent, over Air Force veteran David Flippo, with a little less than half the expected vote counted. Lee, a former Democrat, has an endorsement from Trump. Either would be an underdog against Horsford, who weathered targeted races in 2020 and 2022.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

The strongly Republican 3rd District in Upstate South Carolina features an open-seat race following the retirement of Republican Rep. Jeff Duncan, who also faced accusations of marital infidelity. In the GOP primary to succeed Duncan, the most notable contenders appear to be pastor Mark Burns, Air National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs and state Rep. Stewart Jones, but it's difficult to identify a favorite. On the fundraising front, Biggs had raised $528,000 as of May 22, while Burns had brought in $516,000, both largely through self-funding. Jones, meanwhile, had raised $217,000 with less self-funding, having represented a part of this region in the state legislature since 2019.

Outside spending here has come principally via the Sen. Rand Paul-associated Protect Freedom PAC's $670,000 outlay to help Jones and Elect Principled Veterans Fund's $314,000 to support Biggs. But it's Burns who has garnered Trump's critical endorsement. Burns's political profile as a pro-Trump Black televangelist has grown in recent years, including a second-place finish in the 4th District's 2022 primary.

But Burns has attracted controversy, too, including in 2016 when he retweeted a fake photo of Hillary Clinton in blackface, and in 2022 when he called for the execution and arrest of those who support protecting transgender children. For her part, Biggs has the support of Republican Gov. Henry McMaster, while Jones gained notice for his efforts to dismantle COVID-19 pandemic-related restrictions. A runoff seems like a real possibility: The only public poll was a mid-May survey by Cygnal on behalf of the pro-Biggs Elect Principled Veterans Fund, which found all three contenders hovering around 10 percent.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538