South Carolina, Nevada, North Dakota primaries and Ohio special election 2024: Nancy Mace, Sam Brown win
Democrats nearly won a safely Republican congressional seat.
June 11 was another packed primary day, as voters in South Carolina, Maine, North Dakota and Nevada weighed in on who will make the ballot this fall. We had our eyes on a slew of Republican primaries on Tuesday, including several competitive contests for U.S. House seats, as well as contests to pick Nevada's GOP Senate nominee and effectively pick the next governor of North Dakota.
In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace's Trumpian pivot didn't cost her, as she handily fended off an establishment-aligned primary challenger. Fellow incumbent Rep. William Timmons, who was looking vulnerable after an infidelity scandal, also came out ahead in a closer race against his right-wing challenger. In North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Julie Fedorchak became the first non-incumbent woman this cycle to win a GOP primary for a safely red seat. In Nevada, Republican voters chose Sam Brown as their candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen this fall.
Finally, a special election is set to give House Republicans one more seat of breathing room, as voters in Ohio's 6th District filled the seat vacated by Rep. Bill Johnson's departure in January — though not without some unexpected suspense.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Nevada matters, but maybe not in the House
National Republicans are extremely cool on Nevada's three competitive House races this cycle, and I expect that won’t change after tonight's results in the GOP primaries. To the extent there was hopefulness around any of the candidates, it was Marty O'Donnell in the 3rd District and Flemming Larsen in the 1st District, who are both wealthy and have the capacity to self-fund campaigns. But neither man looks like they're going win at this point, leaving the GOP with a retread candidate in the 1st District and an untested conservative commentator in the 3rd District.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Nevada's state legislature has more women than any other state
Fun fact: Nevada's state legislature is 60 percent women, making it the state with the greatest share of female representation at that level in the country. (Next is Arizona, with 51 percent.) Nevada's congressional delegation is also majority women. Both of their senators are women, and two of their four representatives are women. All are Democrats. As Nathaniel just mentioned, Rosen, one of the female senators in Nevada, will face Brown in November, in what is expected to be a close race.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
First vote drop shows Johnson with an early lead in Nevada's 3rd
As we wrote earlier, Nevada's 3rd congressional district is likely to be one of the most competitive races in the state this fall, with 7 candidates vying to take on Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in this competitive district in the suburbs south of Las Vegas. With 79 percent of the expected vote reported, Johnson, a think-tank founder and policy analyst, has an early lead with 31 percent of the vote so far, according to the AP. Second is Schwartz, with 24 percent of the vote. Schwartz has been running in, and losing, Republican primaries in Nevada since 2012 — most recently a 2022 bid for lieutenant governor. Brian Nadell, who is on our list of anti-abortion candidates, is way behind, with 1 percent of the vote.
—Monica Potts, 538
Brown wins in Nevada
And the AP has projected the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Nevada for Brown. He'll take on Rosen in the fall in what will be one of the most competitive Senate races of 2024. In fact, considering the weakness of some of the other candidates Republicans will probably nominate for Senate, I'd consider Nevada to be the party's best pick-up opportunity outside the Big Three red states (West Virginia, Montana and Ohio).
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Trump seems likely to pad his primary endorsement record in tonight's races
As usual, tonight we'll be watching to see how candidates endorsed by Trump fare in their respective races. The former president loves to tout his "very unblemished" track record for endorsing candidates who win, though when you take a closer look at his numbers, it's not always that impressive. Still, Trump's seal of approval can often be enough to give an edge in a tight primary race, so we'll be watching the 11 races tonight where he has endorsed a candidate:
Trump has already won in two of today's races, since he endorsed incumbents North Dakota Sen. Kevin Cramer and South Carolina Rep. Russell Fry, each of whom are running unopposed. He'll also likely have luck with the other two incumbents he endorsed, Reps. Nancy Mace and William Timmons in South Carolina, though they're facing challengers. As for non-incumbents, Trump made a last-minute endorsement of retired U.S. Army Capt. Sam Brown, who's enjoyed strong party backing and is heavily favored to win. His pick in Maine's 2nd District, former NASCAR driver state Rep. Austin Theriault, also seems to be favored to win, as does former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee in Nevada's 4th District.
But Trump has had a few disappointments in recent weeks. Mendham Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner, whom Trump endorsed for the GOP Senate primary in New Jersey, lost by 7 percentage points last week, and his endorsee for Texas's 21st State House District narrowly lost his primary in a May 28 runoff. I'll be keeping an eye on these races as results come in tonight, and will keep you updated on how blemished or unblemished Trump's record remains.
—Kaleigh Rogers, 538