South Carolina, Nevada, North Dakota primaries and Ohio special election 2024: Nancy Mace, Sam Brown win
Democrats nearly won a safely Republican congressional seat.
June 11 was another packed primary day, as voters in South Carolina, Maine, North Dakota and Nevada weighed in on who will make the ballot this fall. We had our eyes on a slew of Republican primaries on Tuesday, including several competitive contests for U.S. House seats, as well as contests to pick Nevada's GOP Senate nominee and effectively pick the next governor of North Dakota.
In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace's Trumpian pivot didn't cost her, as she handily fended off an establishment-aligned primary challenger. Fellow incumbent Rep. William Timmons, who was looking vulnerable after an infidelity scandal, also came out ahead in a closer race against his right-wing challenger. In North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Julie Fedorchak became the first non-incumbent woman this cycle to win a GOP primary for a safely red seat. In Nevada, Republican voters chose Sam Brown as their candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen this fall.
Finally, a special election is set to give House Republicans one more seat of breathing room, as voters in Ohio's 6th District filled the seat vacated by Rep. Bill Johnson's departure in January — though not without some unexpected suspense.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
We're waiting, Nevada …
It's been almost an hour since polls closed in Nevada, and still no results have been released. Maybe they got stuck in line at the Sphere?
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
What secrets may Eastern Colorado hold?
I for one am now very curious how the special election in Colorado’s 4th District plays out in two weeks. We’ve been treating it like a solid Republican seat. After all, Trump won it by 19 points in 2020. But in tonight’s Ohio 6 special, the Democrat outperformed Trump’s margin by — wait for it — 19 points. At least very superficially, that’s a reminder that special elections can produce quirky outcomes. In fairness, Colorado’s concurrent regular primary should help boost turnout in the Centennial State, especially with the crowded and high-profile GOP primary in the 4th District that features Rep. Lauren Boebert. But I’m still interested in how Republican Greg Lopez does in the special election and whether Democrats can keep up the strong over-performances they’ve notched so far this cycle.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
North Dakota’s Measure 1 seems doomed in court
Mary, you mentioned potential legal challenges for North Dakota’s ballot measure setting congressional age limits. It's pretty clearly unconstitutional under current Supreme Court precedent; the court found in 1995's U.S. Term Limits v. Thornton that states can't impose qualifications to run for office beyond those set forth in the Constitution. (And while the Constitution sets a minimum age to be elected to Congress, it's silent about a maximum.) However, congressional expert Matt Glassman writes on X that this ballot measure could be a way to get the Supreme Court to reconsider that precedent — which could open the door to congressional term limits as well.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Fedorchak's projected win is a milestone for GOP women this cycle
With Fedorchak's projected win in North Dakota’s at-large district, she becomes the first non-incumbent Republican woman to win an open primary in a safe red district this cycle. Why have Republican women had such a slow start in primaries this year? We wrote about some possible explanations last week.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
Trump seems likely to pad his primary endorsement record in tonight's races
As usual, tonight we'll be watching to see how candidates endorsed by Trump fare in their respective races. The former president loves to tout his "very unblemished" track record for endorsing candidates who win, though when you take a closer look at his numbers, it's not always that impressive. Still, Trump's seal of approval can often be enough to give an edge in a tight primary race, so we'll be watching the 11 races tonight where he has endorsed a candidate:
Trump has already won in two of today's races, since he endorsed incumbents North Dakota Sen. Kevin Cramer and South Carolina Rep. Russell Fry, each of whom are running unopposed. He'll also likely have luck with the other two incumbents he endorsed, Reps. Nancy Mace and William Timmons in South Carolina, though they're facing challengers. As for non-incumbents, Trump made a last-minute endorsement of retired U.S. Army Capt. Sam Brown, who's enjoyed strong party backing and is heavily favored to win. His pick in Maine's 2nd District, former NASCAR driver state Rep. Austin Theriault, also seems to be favored to win, as does former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee in Nevada's 4th District.
But Trump has had a few disappointments in recent weeks. Mendham Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner, whom Trump endorsed for the GOP Senate primary in New Jersey, lost by 7 percentage points last week, and his endorsee for Texas's 21st State House District narrowly lost his primary in a May 28 runoff. I'll be keeping an eye on these races as results come in tonight, and will keep you updated on how blemished or unblemished Trump's record remains.
—Kaleigh Rogers, 538