I'm not yet sold on Brown being a better than average Senate candidate. I think he's done a good job of staying under the radar relative to other GOP nominees in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Arizona, and avoided some of the missteps those candidates have made. (It doesn't hurt that Nevada is the perpetual redheaded stepchild of the Senate battlefield, always there but never paid much attention.) But he's still relatively untested. His political record includes failed bids for Texas state House a decade ago and for Senate two years ago. If he does ultimately win, I think it has a lot more to do with Trump's performance in the state than Brown's special strength.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Nathaniel mentioned that Rosen's senate seat could be the GOP's best pick-up opportunity outside the Big Three red states (West Virginia, Montana and Ohio). I think that's right. Brown doesn't seem to have any strange local scandals (unlike Sheehy in Montana, for instance)>, so the Nevada GOP didn't Dr. Oz itself here. Although Brown isn't originally from Nevada, he has a compelling personal story as a combat veteran, who suffered third-degree burns from a 2008 roadside bomb explosion in Afghanistan.

Of course, Nevada Democrats have dug up a few possible scandals and will focus on the abortion issue. On his website, Brown mentions that he is personally pro-life, but would not support national abortion ban because it would overturn the decision of Nevadans, so he's trying to thread that needle. Brown's wife has also been telling her abortion story so the Brown campaign must recognize that this will be a salient issue.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

In the 11 races where Trump has endorsed a candidate, eight of Trump’s picks have won, including Sam Brown in the Nevada Senate GOP primary. One of the former president’s endorsees is going to a runoff, and the remaining two — including John Lee in Nevada’s 4th District — are leading their races. This adds to Trump’s, as he put it recently, “very unblemished” track record. So far this primary season, only one of Trump’s picks for congressional or gubernatorial races has lost (Christine Serrano Glassner, whom Trump endorsed for the GOP Senate primary in New Jersey), so tonight may very well continue that trend.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

In Nevada's 4th District, former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee is leading the GOP primary, 51 to 42 percent, over Air Force veteran David Flippo, with a little less than half the expected vote counted. Lee, a former Democrat, has an endorsement from Trump. Either would be an underdog against Horsford, who weathered targeted races in 2020 and 2022.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Upstate, the race to replace retiring Rep. Jeff Duncan has essentially fallen into a close three-person race. With 63 percent of the expected votes counted, Trump-endorsed Burns is at 31 percent, Biggs has 30 percent and Jones has 20 percent. Toss in double-digit support for Kevin Bishop, the recently retired communications director for Sen. Lindsey Graham, and it's enough to split the vote in a way that makes it very hard for any candidate to break the majority threshold. Whoever finishes tonight in the top two slots will very likely face off again in a runoff election in two weeks' time. It's been interesting to see the vote regional breakdown as ballots are counted. Jones is leading in Laurens County with 52 percent of the vote there — no surprise, as this is the part of the district that Jones represents in the state House. Burns is leading in Pickens, Abbeville (trivia: this is the first county in the U.S., alphabetically), and McCormick Counties — the first two are slightly more conservative, and the first is his home county.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538