South Carolina, Nevada, North Dakota primaries and Ohio special election 2024: Nancy Mace, Sam Brown win
Democrats nearly won a safely Republican congressional seat.
June 11 was another packed primary day, as voters in South Carolina, Maine, North Dakota and Nevada weighed in on who will make the ballot this fall. We had our eyes on a slew of Republican primaries on Tuesday, including several competitive contests for U.S. House seats, as well as contests to pick Nevada's GOP Senate nominee and effectively pick the next governor of North Dakota.
In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace's Trumpian pivot didn't cost her, as she handily fended off an establishment-aligned primary challenger. Fellow incumbent Rep. William Timmons, who was looking vulnerable after an infidelity scandal, also came out ahead in a closer race against his right-wing challenger. In North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Julie Fedorchak became the first non-incumbent woman this cycle to win a GOP primary for a safely red seat. In Nevada, Republican voters chose Sam Brown as their candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen this fall.
Finally, a special election is set to give House Republicans one more seat of breathing room, as voters in Ohio's 6th District filled the seat vacated by Rep. Bill Johnson's departure in January — though not without some unexpected suspense.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
So far, 2024 has been a good year for House incumbents
After tonight, we'll have seen downballot primaries in 26 states, and so far the only incumbent that has lost renomination is Jerry Carl, who due to redistricting had to run in an incumbent-on-incumbent battle against Barry Moore in Alabama's 1st district. With Mace's race now called in her favor and Timmons ahead by around 10 percentage points, it looks like tonight might continue the streak.
However, that's not too unusual. Based on my quick calculations, on average over the last 7 election cycles, just 8 incumbents who faced a primary challenger lost renomination, and in 4 of those 7 cycles, there were 5 or fewer incumbents that failed to secure their party's nomination.
But we may be on track to break the incumbent winning streak as early as next week, when Virginia representative Bob Good faces state senator John McGuire, a Trump endorsed challenger. Polls show that race up in the air, with two polls conducted since Trump's endorsement showing nearly opposite results. And the following week, Democrat Jamaal Bowman of New York's 16th faces a very tough challenge from Westchester County Executive George Latimer. So don't expect Jerry Carl to be the lone incumbent loser when all is said and done.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
If Biggs wins South Carolina's 3rd it would be a big(g) win for GOP women
As Kaleigh just mentioned, South Carolina’s 3rd could go to a runoff between Burns and Biggs. It's notable that Biggs is in this because as I mentioned earlier tonight on the blog, no non-incumbent Republican women have won a nomination for a safe Republican seat in November in primaries before today's races. Biggs received a primary endorsement from VIEW PAC, one of the women's groups we are tracking that is endorsing women in primaries, this cycle. The other women's groups we are tracking — E-PAC, Maggie’s List, and Winning for Women — didn’t endorse in that primary.
We'll have to see what happens, if Biggs does make a runoff. In North Carolina's 13th District, another safely red seat, a woman, Kelly Daughtry received the most votes in the primary and qualified for the runoff, but she subsequently dropped out after Trump endorsed her runoff rival, Brad Knott.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
Mace calls for rape and incest exceptions on abortion
With Mace's win, she stands out among many Republican candidates in that she calls for rape an incest exceptions to abortion bans. Majorities of Americans support rape and incest exceptions to abortion bans, including most Republicans, but only about half the states that ban the procedure currently have them.
—Monica Potts, 538
VIEW PAC endorsee Mace, defeats Winning for Women endorsee Templeton
Mace’s win is also a win for VIEW PAC, one of the GOP women’s groups we're tracking endorsements from in primaries this cycle. One of her several challengers included former state cabinet official Catherine Templeton, who was endorsed by Winning for Women.
We're keeping a close eye on GOP women's group endorsements tonight since, according to our analysis, primary endorsements from groups like Winning for Women, Maggie’s List and VIEW PAC that work to elect more Republican women to office is down this cycle, compared to last. This slow start may be why earlier this month Rep. Elise Stefanik, founder of E-PAC (the Republican counterpart to Democrat’s EMILYs List) told the National Journal’s Hotline that the group plans to work in alignment with the NRCC and party leadership to endorse more women moving forward.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
Will the next North Dakota governor ever make a video like this?
One of the races I'm watching tonight is the Republican primary for North Dakota's governor, and, as Geoffrey noted earlier, that race has been increasingly heated. Of course, the Republican nominee is seeking to replace Burgum, who is retiring after a brief run for the Republican nomination for president, and amid chatter that he could be Trump's vice presidential pick. So I'd just like to take a moment to remember this cinematic video Burgum used to launch his presidential campaign, with a voiceover that praised small-town values over scenic images of hills and livestock. Maybe we can look forward to such a video one day from his successor.
—Monica Potts, 538