South Carolina primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to stay in the race
What can we take away from Trump's big Palmetto State victory?
Former President Donald Trump has won the South Carolina Republican primary, ABC News projects. It was a swift and embarrassing defeat for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who rose to political prominence as South Carolina’s governor. Nevertheless, in her concession speech, Haley vowed to continue her campaign into Super Tuesday on March 5.
Throughout the evening, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Southern politics are now just politics?
The South has historically been a politically distinct region. This distinctive character — associated for a long time with strong, conservative Democratic affiliation — has been really important in explaining how the Democratic presidential nomination calendar has evolved. Super Tuesday was initially pushed to strengthen Southern influence and give an advantage to moderate candidates. South Carolina itself was moved to a more prominent spot in the primary calendar because many of its Democratic primary voters are African American — unlike in the traditional early states of New Hampshire and Iowa.
But what does this mean for Republicans? The South has been a Republican stronghold for most of the twentieth century, though Democratic presidential candidates have pulled off occasional victories. And South Carolina hasn't been a distinctly regional primary for Republicans (though Georgian Newt Gingrich won the GOP primary there in 2012). Nikki Haley doesn’t seem to be enjoying much home state (or region) advantage there. And Trump, who is from New York, is consistently popular in the South.
The larger point here is probably that, now that it’s generally in the Republican column, the South has been much less exemplary of unique regional politics, and instead has similar issue positions and priorities as other Republican strongholds.
—Julia Azari, 538 contributor
The polls might’ve missed this one
Only a third of the estimated vote is counted so far, but Trump is leading Haley only 59 percent to 40 percent. If that 19-point lead holds, it would be a pretty far cry from the 28-point lead that the polls foresaw, even though they “called” the correct winner. It’s a good reminder that polls of presidential primaries historically have a lot of error.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
South Carolina GOP primary voters strongly support sending National Guard troops to the border
If voters are focused on immigration, as the preliminary exit polling shows, that almost certainly plays to Trump’s strengths. In a February poll from The Citadel School of Humanities and Social Sciences, 85 percent of likely GOP primary voters in South Carolina said that they supported the use of state funds under Gov. Henry McMaster’s order to deploy South Carolina National Guard troops to the U.S.-Mexico border last year, while just 11 percent opposed the decision. Among South Carolina voters overall, 57 percent supported the decision, while 35 percent opposed it. This echoes Trump’s position on the issue.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Haley’s complicated relationship with the 1st Congressional District
I’m reminded that in 2022, Haley stuck her neck out for 1st District Rep. Nancy Mace when Mace faced a Trump-endorsed challenger in the GOP primary. Haley even cut an ad for Mace who went on to defeat her opponent by just 8 points. Mace returned the favor by endorsing Trump over Haley in this year’s primary.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Final thought: Haley could actually win delegates tonight
We don't have final results by congressional district (much less overall), but as we can see from a map of the results, Haley is doing better along the coast near Charleston than in much of the rest of South Carolina. That may signal that Haley could carry the 1st Congressional District once all is said and done to win three delegates. That may not seem like much, but Trump swept South Carolina's delegates in 2016, and if Haley is sticking around, winning any delegates has to be part of her strategy to carry on.
Half of the 1st District's population is in Charleston and Beaufort counties, according to Daily Kos Elections — both of which Haley currently lead in. Another 49 percent of the district lies in Berkeley and Dorchester counties, both of which Trump holds an edge in (the remaining 1 percent is in Colleton and Jasper counties). Charleston and Dorchester are both split between the 1st and 6th, so we can't figure out the district-level result based purely on the county-level numbers. So we'll have to see. But Haley's showing in the 1st might be her one bright spot tonight.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538