South Carolina primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to stay in the race
What can we take away from Trump's big Palmetto State victory?
Former President Donald Trump has won the South Carolina Republican primary, ABC News projects. It was a swift and embarrassing defeat for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who rose to political prominence as South Carolina’s governor. Nevertheless, in her concession speech, Haley vowed to continue her campaign into Super Tuesday on March 5.
Throughout the evening, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Southern politics are now just politics?
The South has historically been a politically distinct region. This distinctive character — associated for a long time with strong, conservative Democratic affiliation — has been really important in explaining how the Democratic presidential nomination calendar has evolved. Super Tuesday was initially pushed to strengthen Southern influence and give an advantage to moderate candidates. South Carolina itself was moved to a more prominent spot in the primary calendar because many of its Democratic primary voters are African American — unlike in the traditional early states of New Hampshire and Iowa.
But what does this mean for Republicans? The South has been a Republican stronghold for most of the twentieth century, though Democratic presidential candidates have pulled off occasional victories. And South Carolina hasn't been a distinctly regional primary for Republicans (though Georgian Newt Gingrich won the GOP primary there in 2012). Nikki Haley doesn’t seem to be enjoying much home state (or region) advantage there. And Trump, who is from New York, is consistently popular in the South.
The larger point here is probably that, now that it’s generally in the Republican column, the South has been much less exemplary of unique regional politics, and instead has similar issue positions and priorities as other Republican strongholds.
—Julia Azari, 538 contributor
The polls might’ve missed this one
Only a third of the estimated vote is counted so far, but Trump is leading Haley only 59 percent to 40 percent. If that 19-point lead holds, it would be a pretty far cry from the 28-point lead that the polls foresaw, even though they “called” the correct winner. It’s a good reminder that polls of presidential primaries historically have a lot of error.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
South Carolina GOP primary voters strongly support sending National Guard troops to the border
If voters are focused on immigration, as the preliminary exit polling shows, that almost certainly plays to Trump’s strengths. In a February poll from The Citadel School of Humanities and Social Sciences, 85 percent of likely GOP primary voters in South Carolina said that they supported the use of state funds under Gov. Henry McMaster’s order to deploy South Carolina National Guard troops to the U.S.-Mexico border last year, while just 11 percent opposed the decision. Among South Carolina voters overall, 57 percent supported the decision, while 35 percent opposed it. This echoes Trump’s position on the issue.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Haley’s complicated relationship with the 1st Congressional District
I’m reminded that in 2022, Haley stuck her neck out for 1st District Rep. Nancy Mace when Mace faced a Trump-endorsed challenger in the GOP primary. Haley even cut an ad for Mace who went on to defeat her opponent by just 8 points. Mace returned the favor by endorsing Trump over Haley in this year’s primary.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
South Carolina primary voters are concerned about immigration
In a February poll from Suffolk University/USA Today, likely South Carolina GOP primary voters were asked the most important issue facing the country. Of the options offered, 42 percent said that “immigration and border security” is the most important issue, 26 percent said “the economy” and 13 percent said the “future of American democracy.” No other issue offered got more than 5 percent of respondents.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538