South Carolina primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to stay in the race
What can we take away from Trump's big Palmetto State victory?
Former President Donald Trump has won the South Carolina Republican primary, ABC News projects. It was a swift and embarrassing defeat for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who rose to political prominence as South Carolina’s governor. Nevertheless, in her concession speech, Haley vowed to continue her campaign into Super Tuesday on March 5.
Throughout the evening, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Final thought: Looking to the suburbs
There are significant differences between primaries and general elections. (If you’re reading this live blog, I’d bet Nathaniel’s next paycheck you already know that.) But I don’t think we should lose sight of where specifically Trump is struggling in South Carolina and in the other early states: metro areas and the suburbs. Tonight, the three counties Haley won happen to be the three counties with the highest educational attainment in the state. We know that one of the primary engines of Democratic success in every cycle since 2016, really, has been improved fortunes among suburban and educated voters. Most Haley voters will end up voting for Trump, yes, but I don’t think it’s insignificant that even as he flexes control over the GOP for eight years running, his problems in the suburbs are still as evident as ever.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Final thought: Haley could actually win delegates tonight
We don't have final results by congressional district (much less overall), but as we can see from a map of the results, Haley is doing better along the coast near Charleston than in much of the rest of South Carolina. That may signal that Haley could carry the 1st Congressional District once all is said and done to win three delegates. That may not seem like much, but Trump swept South Carolina's delegates in 2016, and if Haley is sticking around, winning any delegates has to be part of her strategy to carry on.
Half of the 1st District's population is in Charleston and Beaufort counties, according to Daily Kos Elections — both of which Haley currently lead in. Another 49 percent of the district lies in Berkeley and Dorchester counties, both of which Trump holds an edge in (the remaining 1 percent is in Colleton and Jasper counties). Charleston and Dorchester are both split between the 1st and 6th, so we can't figure out the district-level result based purely on the county-level numbers. So we'll have to see. But Haley's showing in the 1st might be her one bright spot tonight.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Final thought: The primary is over, long live the primaries
You’re right, Nathaniel, this isn’t a real primary. If nothing really dramatic happens, Trump is going to easily walk to the nomination. My silver lining: Super Tuesday marks the start of our downballot primary season, with primary races for Senate in California and Texas, and primaries for House races in five states. So perhaps we’ll have something more competitive to talk about soon.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Final thought: Haley is a unique candidate
Well, this wasn’t the most eventful primary night I’ve ever live-blogged. But this gave me a chance to reflect on the increasingly unusual nature of Haley’s candidacy. I can see an emerging narrative about her speech, in which she positioned herself directly against the polarization represented by a Biden-Trump matchup. Haley is a former member of the Trump administration, yet she’s positioned herself more and more as a Trump alternative — not a Trump substitute. She’s focused mainly on the electability issue, but she did sound a bit like a center-right third party candidate there. That’s not all that struck me though — Haley has also run an explicitly gendered campaign, talking about her 5-inch heels and “if you want something done, ask a woman.” She is only the second woman to win delegates in Republican primaries or caucuses. (Carly Fiorina was the first.) As we track the (Trump-dominated) horse race, we shouldn’t lose sight of what a unique candidate she is.
—Julia Azari, 538 contributor
That's a wrap!
As of 9:20 p.m., 70 percent of the expected vote is reporting in South Carolina, and Trump is leading Haley by 20 points. It’s a decisive victory for the former president, as expected, though a somewhat smaller margin than his average lead in the polls heading into today (around 28 points).
Haley’s margin of defeat, though, looks even larger when it comes to delegates: Under South Carolina’s delegate allocation system, over half the state’s 50 delegates are awarded to the statewide winner, while the rest are awarded by congressional district. It looks like the maximum delegates Haley could walk away with in her home state tonight is three, if she holds onto her lead in the 1st District.
Despite this, Haley proclaimed in her speech that tonight’s result demonstrated her home state’s frustration with the country’s direction and reiterated her promise to stay in the race.
And on that note ... We hope to see you back here for our Super Tuesday live blog on March 5! We're gearing up for an eventful night tracking not only the presidential race in 15 states (and one territory) but a slew of down-ballot primaries in Senate, House and gubernatorial races as well.
—Tia Yang, 538