Based on an analysis of the vote, ABC News projects that Trump and Biden will win their presidential primaries in Arkansas. With about 7 percent of the expected vote in, Womack is holding onto his lead in the 3rd Congressional District 60 percent to 40 percent against Penzo.

—Monica Potts, 538

I'll be very interested to see, when the dust settles tonight, if the polls are more on the money in states with closed primaries, where bored (or wily) Democrats can't vote in the Republican Party primary for Haley. A lot of the exit polling data we've seen on Haley supporters and who they'll vote for in the general election, or whether they approve of Biden's job performance, makes me wonder how many of her voters are just plain old Democrats who are getting screened out of a lot of GOP primary polling. But we'd see a difference in closed primary states (to the extent we have robust polling there to make the comparison)!

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Julia, I'm suspicious that the reason Trump's lead in primary polling has been somewhat exaggerated is that pollsters are not necessarily capturing some of the independents who are showing up to vote in a GOP primary. As Nate Cohn recently pointed out in The New York Times, some pollsters have filtered for likely GOP primary voters by mostly or only looking at voters who've voted in Republican primaries. But a fair number of independents, including Democratic-leaning ones, wouldn't necessarily fall in that category. But with Biden a lock to win the Democratic nomination — barring something happening outside of the voting booth — Democratic-leaning voters have only one race to get involved in. Although we know there aren't that many "cross-over" voters who participate in the opposing party's primary, some high-propensity Democratic voters and some Democratic-leaning independents have probably voted in states that allow non-Republicans to cast ballots in the GOP primary.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

In 2016, people who said they were undecided in polls were more likely to vote for Trump as "professor polls" explains in this great 538 video I show my students. But in 2024, Trump supporters aren't so shy. It's the rest of the GOP that might be more bashful.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

There are a handful of particularly hot downballot contests in North Carolina worth paying attention to tonight. You can read about them in more detail in my preview from last week, but here's a quick recap to get you up to speed.

Neither the Democratic nor Republican primary for governor is competitive, but they're worth paying attention to because this race will be competitive come November. If Republican front-runner Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson — a deeply conservative Christian and controversial figure — wins the nomination and defeats Attorney General Josh Stein, who is leading the Democratic race, it would give Republicans a governing trifecta in the state for the first time in eight years.

Thanks to redistricting, North Carolina's 1st Congressional District is expected to be the state's only competitive congressional race this fall. Incumbent Democratic Rep. Don Davis will be squaring off against one of two Republicans: Jan. 6-attending, MAGA firebrand Sandy Smith and retired U.S. Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout, a wealthy businesswoman who has spent more than $1 million of her own money boosting her campaign.

Then there are four safely Republican open seats elsewhere in the state, where the GOP primary will effectively decide the next representative. In the 6th District, the six-candidate field includes Bo Hines, a former wide receiver for North Carolina State University who ran unsuccessfully in 2022. In the 8th District outside Charlotte, the two GOP front runners are state Rep. John Bradford, who has poured $1.3 million of his own money into his campaign, and Baptist minister Mark Harris, whose 2018 congressional win was thrown out due to allegations of ballot fraud.

In the 10th District, state Rep. Grey Mills is hoping to upset front-runner Pat Harrigan, a gun manufacturer who was the Republican nominee in the 14th District in 2022. And in the 13th District, there are no fewer than 14 candidates running — this one looks like a jump ball and may even go to a May 14 runoff if none of the candidates can clear 30 percent of the vote.

I'll have more on these races and more from the Tar Heel State soon! Polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538