ABC News now projects that Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff and Republican Steve Garvey, a former Major League Baseball player, will advance in California's U.S. Senate race. This will set up a traditional Democrat-versus-Republican contest in November, which is unlikely to be interesting in deep-blue California. With 41 percent of the estimated vote reporting, Schiff leads Garvey 37 percent to 29 percent. That suggests that Schiff's spending on ads to improve Garvey's name recognition among Republicans succeeded, allowing the congressman to avoid facing fellow Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who is in third with 15 percent. And while we are still waiting for more returns, our map of the top-two Senate primary shows only Schiff and Garvey holding leads in any county that has results, speaking to their edge.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

With all precincts reporting in North Carolina’s 8th congressional district, Baptist minister Mark Harris is winning 30.44 percent of the vote per North Carolina's State Board of Elections, successfully avoiding a runoff and securing his spot on the ballot in the solidly Republican district after ballot fraud allegations kept him out of Congress in 2018.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

I've been keeping half an eye on the race for the chief justice for the state Supreme Court in Arkansas, and the four-way race is very close. With almost all of the expected vote in, two sitting justices, Justice Rhonda Wood and Justice Karen Baker, are virtually tied at about 27 percent each, according to The New York Times. If they remain the top two candidates when all the votes are in, they'll had to a runoff in November. Fun fact: Baker is from my hometown of Clinton, Arkansas.

—Monica Potts, 538

A big question is whether Trump is line to mathematically clinch the nomination next Tuesday, March 12 — the earliest possible date on the calendar that a candidate (namely, Trump) could claim a majority of the GOP's 2,429 national delegates. And it looks like it could be close.

Trump entered the night with 247 delegates to Haley's 43, according to 538's delegate benchmark tracker, and he looks in line to win roughly 775 to 805 delegates out of 854 that were up for grabs today. That would put him at around 1,025 to 1,055 delegates. If he's on the short end of that range, a Trump sweep of all delegates in contests after today up through March 12 would put him just above the 1,215 mark to clinch. This makes the Vermont result, where Haley is just above 50 percent, pretty important, because it would mean the difference between Trump claiming about 0 delegates, or claiming 8 should Haley fall short of a majority in her victory.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

There are a handful of particularly hot downballot contests in North Carolina worth paying attention to tonight. You can read about them in more detail in my preview from last week, but here's a quick recap to get you up to speed.

Neither the Democratic nor Republican primary for governor is competitive, but they're worth paying attention to because this race will be competitive come November. If Republican front-runner Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson — a deeply conservative Christian and controversial figure — wins the nomination and defeats Attorney General Josh Stein, who is leading the Democratic race, it would give Republicans a governing trifecta in the state for the first time in eight years.

Thanks to redistricting, North Carolina's 1st Congressional District is expected to be the state's only competitive congressional race this fall. Incumbent Democratic Rep. Don Davis will be squaring off against one of two Republicans: Jan. 6-attending, MAGA firebrand Sandy Smith and retired U.S. Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout, a wealthy businesswoman who has spent more than $1 million of her own money boosting her campaign.

Then there are four safely Republican open seats elsewhere in the state, where the GOP primary will effectively decide the next representative. In the 6th District, the six-candidate field includes Bo Hines, a former wide receiver for North Carolina State University who ran unsuccessfully in 2022. In the 8th District outside Charlotte, the two GOP front runners are state Rep. John Bradford, who has poured $1.3 million of his own money into his campaign, and Baptist minister Mark Harris, whose 2018 congressional win was thrown out due to allegations of ballot fraud.

In the 10th District, state Rep. Grey Mills is hoping to upset front-runner Pat Harrigan, a gun manufacturer who was the Republican nominee in the 14th District in 2022. And in the 13th District, there are no fewer than 14 candidates running — this one looks like a jump ball and may even go to a May 14 runoff if none of the candidates can clear 30 percent of the vote.

I'll have more on these races and more from the Tar Heel State soon! Polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538