Smith is an outspoken, MAGA-style firebrand who hasn’t managed to pull out a win in the area and would have been a more appealing (read: weaker) opponent for the freshman congressman in this swingy district. As I mentioned earlier, the 1st District has long been a Democratic stronghold — it hasn’t elected a Republican in over 140 years — but after redistricting, it was redrawn to become a tossup district, and is set to be the only real competitive Congressional race in North Carolina this fall.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

In North Carolina's 1st congressional district, Buckhout is projected to win the Republican primary, according to The New York Times. We wrote about this earlier, but her win comes on the strength of national Republican Party efforts to make her the nominee over two-time candidate in the district, Sandy Smith, a candidate with a more Trumpy profile. Buckhout will take on Democratic Rep. Don Davis in November.

—Monica Potts, 538

With more than 90 percent of North Carolina's expected vote in, we can now say more about the patterns in that state. First, Trump is romping statewide, with 75 percent to Haley's 23 percent. But where is Trump doing especially well? In counties with few people with college degrees, sure. But also in counties with lower population density and more Black voters. That said, it doesn't mean Trump is doing well with Black GOP voters — preliminary data from the North Carolina exit poll suggest that in fact non-White Republican primary voters were a bit less supportive of Trump than white Republican primary voters. Instead, Trump is doing especially well in the counties with more Black residents (regardless of whether they're voting tonight or not).

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

With 81-year-old Rep. Kay Granger set to retire, the primary race to replace her in Texas's 12th District looks like it may go to the more establishment GOP candidate: state Rep. Craig Goldman, who is currently leading with 46 percent and 78 percent of expected votes in. He'll need to get 50 percent of the vote (plus one vote) to avoid a runoff with local businessman John O'Shea, a more Trumpian candidate who currently has 25 percent of the vote.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

There are a handful of particularly hot downballot contests in North Carolina worth paying attention to tonight. You can read about them in more detail in my preview from last week, but here's a quick recap to get you up to speed.

Neither the Democratic nor Republican primary for governor is competitive, but they're worth paying attention to because this race will be competitive come November. If Republican front-runner Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson — a deeply conservative Christian and controversial figure — wins the nomination and defeats Attorney General Josh Stein, who is leading the Democratic race, it would give Republicans a governing trifecta in the state for the first time in eight years.

Thanks to redistricting, North Carolina's 1st Congressional District is expected to be the state's only competitive congressional race this fall. Incumbent Democratic Rep. Don Davis will be squaring off against one of two Republicans: Jan. 6-attending, MAGA firebrand Sandy Smith and retired U.S. Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout, a wealthy businesswoman who has spent more than $1 million of her own money boosting her campaign.

Then there are four safely Republican open seats elsewhere in the state, where the GOP primary will effectively decide the next representative. In the 6th District, the six-candidate field includes Bo Hines, a former wide receiver for North Carolina State University who ran unsuccessfully in 2022. In the 8th District outside Charlotte, the two GOP front runners are state Rep. John Bradford, who has poured $1.3 million of his own money into his campaign, and Baptist minister Mark Harris, whose 2018 congressional win was thrown out due to allegations of ballot fraud.

In the 10th District, state Rep. Grey Mills is hoping to upset front-runner Pat Harrigan, a gun manufacturer who was the Republican nominee in the 14th District in 2022. And in the 13th District, there are no fewer than 14 candidates running — this one looks like a jump ball and may even go to a May 14 runoff if none of the candidates can clear 30 percent of the vote.

I'll have more on these races and more from the Tar Heel State soon! Polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538