Texas Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw has long had a bit of a fractious relationship with the more extreme members of his party. He was one of just a few Republicans to vote to certify Biden's election in 2020, and he's often feuded with fellow Republican, Georgia's Marjorie Taylor Greene. Though he's been a reliable vote against the Biden agenda and is backing Trump again, co-hosting a fundraiser for the former president, he's clearly not alright with the base.

With about 73 percent of the vote reporting, he leads his conservative challenger Jameson Ellis by just 17 points. That might seem like a lot, but consider that just two years ago, Crenshaw also faced Ellis in the 2022 GOP primary and defeated him by a much wider 58-point margin.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee is projected to win the Democratic primary in Texas's 18th District, fending off a challenge from former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards. Jackson Lee lost a bit of steam in her congressional campaign by running for Houston mayor last year, a race she lost. But after jumping back into her reelection bid, she has managed to edge out the young upstart challenger in Edwards, all but guaranteeing her another term in this deep-blue district.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

I don't doubt that there are parts of the GOP electorate this cycle that are hard to capture, and they may well be Democratic-leaning independents or just straight up Democrats. But equally importantly, we should keep in mind that primary polls are the most prone to error of all the kinds of election polls out there. And actually, outside of Michigan, the polls have been well within the 8 to 10 percentage points of average primary polling error we should expect.

—Galen Druke, 538

ABC News is projecting that Biden and Trump will win their respective presidential primaries in Texas, as will Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, who Democrats are angling to unseat this fall. The race for the Democratic Senate nomination in Texas is hot, though as I mentioned earlier, the front-runner is Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL player and civil rights attorney who has represented the Dallas area since 2019.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538