I don't doubt that there are parts of the GOP electorate this cycle that are hard to capture, and they may well be Democratic-leaning independents or just straight up Democrats. But equally importantly, we should keep in mind that primary polls are the most prone to error of all the kinds of election polls out there. And actually, outside of Michigan, the polls have been well within the 8 to 10 percentage points of average primary polling error we should expect.

—Galen Druke, 538

ABC News is projecting that Biden and Trump will win their respective presidential primaries in Texas, as will Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, who Democrats are angling to unseat this fall. The race for the Democratic Senate nomination in Texas is hot, though as I mentioned earlier, the front-runner is Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL player and civil rights attorney who has represented the Dallas area since 2019.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Based on an analysis of the vote, ABC News projects that Trump and Biden will win their presidential primaries in Arkansas. With about 7 percent of the expected vote in, Womack is holding onto his lead in the 3rd Congressional District 60 percent to 40 percent against Penzo.

—Monica Potts, 538

I'll be very interested to see, when the dust settles tonight, if the polls are more on the money in states with closed primaries, where bored (or wily) Democrats can't vote in the Republican Party primary for Haley. A lot of the exit polling data we've seen on Haley supporters and who they'll vote for in the general election, or whether they approve of Biden's job performance, makes me wonder how many of her voters are just plain old Democrats who are getting screened out of a lot of GOP primary polling. But we'd see a difference in closed primary states (to the extent we have robust polling there to make the comparison)!

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections