Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out
538 tracked how Trump and Haley did, plus key U.S. House and Senate races.
March 5 was Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! With former President Donald Trump projected to win 14 of the day's 15 GOP presidential nominating contests, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley announced Wednesday morning that she is suspending her campaign.
It was also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas.
538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Question: What's everyone's favorite theory ...
What's everyone's favorite theory about why polls have seemed to consistently overestimate Trump support? (I know this was discussed some on the podcast.)
—Julia Azari, 538 contributor
It's a big (but not super competitive) primary and nonpartisan election night in Arkansas
Tonight I'll also be watching my home state of Arkansas, where polls just closed. There hasn't been recent polling on the GOP presidential primary there, but Trump remains popular in the conservative state, which he won 62 percent of the state in the 2020 general election. His former press secretary is the governor, Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and she endorsed him in the fall.
There's not much suspense downballot either. Rep. Steve Womack, who represents the northwest corner of the state—home to the University of Arkansas, Walmart, and other big businesses and booming towns—is fending off an unlikely challenger from his right and is the only Republican incumbent to face a challenger. That challenger, State Sen. Clint Penzo is against vaccines, the war in Ukraine, government spending and has criticized Womack's votes during the House speaker fight last fall. But Womack has represented the district for 13 years and all the advantages of incumbency.
On the Democratic side, all four candidates for the House are running uncontested.
Perhaps of a bit more interest — earlier, I wrote about the state Supreme Court races and how the outcomes there could result in a game of musical chairs leading the very conservative Sanders to make one or two appointments to the court.
—Monica Potts, 538
How will military towns break?
With results coming in from Virginia, I'm keeping an eye on the Commonwealth's southeastern corner. Not only is it home to Virginia Beach, the largest city in Virginia, it's also home to a substantial number of military families. In 2020 at least, donations from those serving in the U.S. military split more evenly between Democrats and Republicans than some might expect. So far, Trump is winning Virginia Beach by roughly a 2 to 1 margin, while Haley is keeping it closer in neighboring Norfolk with 42 percent of the vote so far.
—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
The Maine Event
ABC News projects that Trump will win the GOP primary in Maine. With about 8 percent of the expected vote counted, he leads Haley, 69 percent to 22 percent.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections