Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out

538 tracked how Trump and Haley did, plus key U.S. House and Senate races.

March 5 was Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! With former President Donald Trump projected to win 14 of the day's 15 GOP presidential nominating contests, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley announced Wednesday morning that she is suspending her campaign.

It was also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas.

538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Haley's coalition remains strong in Vermont

While the overall result has differed, the Vermont map below showcases a similar trend to Massachusetts. As Nathaniel pointed out, Boston and its well-to-do suburbs leaned towards Haley. In Vermont, Haley's strongest results came in areas just across the New Hampshire border from Dartmouth College and in the stretch of land between Montpelier and Burlington, which benefit economically from those population centers and a few prominent ski resorts.

Amina Brown, 538


VIEWPAC-endorsed candidates in open primaries are having a tough night

In 2022, our analysis showed that just 48 percent of Republican women in open primaries endorsed by VIEWPAC (a PAC dedicated to electing more women) won. As we observed at the time, VIEWPAC was willing to endorse candidates running against Trump endorsees, which was a bold, but losing, strategy in 2022. Tonight, VIEWPAC candidates in open primaries are not having a lot of success. As I already mentioned, in Alabama's 2nd District, Caroleene Dobson trails Dick Brewbaker. And in Texas's 26th District, another endorsee, Luisa del Rosa, a small business owner, is in a distant fourth place behind a Trump endorsee, Brandon Gill, with 88 percent of the expected votes in. (Gill has also been endorsed by Club for Growth.) But in Texas's 34th, the race has been called for their endorsee, Maya Flores ... who is also endorsed by Trump.

Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Vermont on the razor's edge

Nikki Haley's delegate count from Vermont hinges on whether she clears the 50 percent threshold. And right now, she's incredibly close to it. With 68,420 votes cast, Haley has 34,215, which is 4 more votes than the 50 percent plus 1 she needs to sweep the state's delegates. When I simulate 100,000 primaries with that number of total votes and an even 50-50 split, I get a result that's within that tight margin only 3 percent of the time.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor


Trump projected to win California

Polls have closed in California, and ABC News projects that Trump will win the Golden State. He should easily clear 50 percent and claim all of the state's 169 delegates.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


A projection in California's 30th District

Good morning! We continue to track the handful of House races that still don't have winners, mostly in California. As a reminder, California votes almost entirely by mail, and while ballots had to be postmarked by March 5, they can arrive as late as March 12 and still count. Therefore, there are still thousands of ballots out there to be counted, so we could be waiting for several days.

In the meantime, though, we can cross one unresolved congressional race off the list: In California's 30th District, ABC News reports that Democrat Laura Friedman and Republican Alex Balekian are projected to advance to the general election in November. The 30th District is the seat that Schiff is leaving behind to run for Senate, and it's safely Democratic, so Friedman, a former film producer and state assemblywoman, should have no problem winning in the fall. The primary result is kind of a lucky break for her, actually, as there was a chance that she was going to face a fellow Democrat like Anthony Portantino or Mike Feuer in November, which would have been a dogfight.

P.S. People with long memories might remember that "Boy Meets World" star Ben Savage was also running for this seat, but he ended up finishing seventh with just 4 percent.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538