Smith is an outspoken, MAGA-style firebrand who hasn’t managed to pull out a win in the area and would have been a more appealing (read: weaker) opponent for the freshman congressman in this swingy district. As I mentioned earlier, the 1st District has long been a Democratic stronghold — it hasn’t elected a Republican in over 140 years — but after redistricting, it was redrawn to become a tossup district, and is set to be the only real competitive Congressional race in North Carolina this fall.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

In North Carolina's 1st congressional district, Buckhout is projected to win the Republican primary, according to The New York Times. We wrote about this earlier, but her win comes on the strength of national Republican Party efforts to make her the nominee over two-time candidate in the district, Sandy Smith, a candidate with a more Trumpy profile. Buckhout will take on Democratic Rep. Don Davis in November.

—Monica Potts, 538

With more than 90 percent of North Carolina's expected vote in, we can now say more about the patterns in that state. First, Trump is romping statewide, with 75 percent to Haley's 23 percent. But where is Trump doing especially well? In counties with few people with college degrees, sure. But also in counties with lower population density and more Black voters. That said, it doesn't mean Trump is doing well with Black GOP voters — preliminary data from the North Carolina exit poll suggest that in fact non-White Republican primary voters were a bit less supportive of Trump than white Republican primary voters. Instead, Trump is doing especially well in the counties with more Black residents (regardless of whether they're voting tonight or not).

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

With 81-year-old Rep. Kay Granger set to retire, the primary race to replace her in Texas's 12th District looks like it may go to the more establishment GOP candidate: state Rep. Craig Goldman, who is currently leading with 46 percent and 78 percent of expected votes in. He'll need to get 50 percent of the vote (plus one vote) to avoid a runoff with local businessman John O'Shea, a more Trumpian candidate who currently has 25 percent of the vote.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Now that the California Senate race has been projected, and more or less matches what we expected from pre-election polling, Schiff and Garvey will move on to the general election. Voters priorities in the state reflect its Democratic bent, giving us more hints that Schiff is well-positioned for a big lead in the general.

In polling before the primary, voters said abortion was the most important factor for their senate vote. In a late February University of California Berkeley/Los Angeles Times survey, 55 percent of likely California primary voters say that being "a strong voice in defending abortion rights" is very important to their Senate vote, more than any other candidate quality tested. For voters that say they plan to vote for Schiff, Porter or Lee (the top three Democrats in the race), 84 percent say defending abortion is very important, compared to just 15 percent among those who say they plan to vote for Garvey, the leading Republican.

Other top candidate qualities in the survey include being "a strong opponent of Donald Trump" (51 percent say this is very important) and supporting tougher immigration laws (46 percent). Among the top four candidates, Lee supporters were the only group among which a majority (63 percent) said supporting an immediate cease-fire in Gaza is very important, compared to 42 percent of Porter supporters, 33 percent of Schiff supporters and 13 percent of Garvey supporters.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538