Most of the Republicans that emerge from the GOP primaries in North Carolina today will be men. But in the 1st District, Democratic Rep. Don Davis awaits today's outcome, which will determine if he'll face Republican MAGA-firebrand, Sandy Smith (again), or wealthy businesswoman, Laurie Buckhout. As we wrote earlier, the 1st District will likely be the state's sole competitive House race in November.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

In the first 19 towns in Vermont with reasonably complete results, Trump's support this year correlates at around 0.60 with his support back in 2016, which is a pretty high correlation and similar to what we saw in New Hampshire. But as we've observed in other states, Trump is also doing well in the Vermont towns where Ted Cruz had more support in 2016. Since 2016, Trump has consolidated the GOP's right-leaning voters.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

We're still waiting on results in most races, but I'm also watching Oklahoma, where polls have just closed. Trump has a massive lead against Haley in recent Republican primary polling in Oklahoma, and, since the primary is closed, Haley can't count on independents and Democrats shrinking his margin against her. Trump won the state in the 2020 general election with 65 percent of the vote, making it one of his best states in the U.S., and Biden did not win a single county there.

Heavily evangelical, with a mix of Southern and Western spirit, Oklahoma remains one of the reddest states in the country. Whoever wins this primary race is almost certain to carry the state in November. Sen. Markwayne Mullin, the state's junior senator, has called on Haley to drop out if she doesn't win a single state tonight.

—Monica Potts, 538

The 2024 primary season has been weirder than I think anyone expected. The two parties feel like they have a lot of internal tension, but with a current and a former president seeking their parties' respective nominations, it hasn't been very competitive. One result of this has been that we've been looking for clues to the general — the Trump-Biden rematch — in the primary results. In turn, this has meant some overinterpretation of primary results — it's not a given that people who cast a vote for another candidate won't come home in the general.

It's also hard to compare the internal dynamics of the two parties and apply those to predictions for the general. Dean Phillips' candidacy, for example, has presented himself as a moderate, pragmatic alternative to Biden — but he's mostly emphasized the age difference. Some Democrats have been unhappy with the policies of the administration, especially on the Israel issue, but there hasn't been a progressive candidate to challenge him. Trump, on the other hand, has faced — and beaten — experienced opponents with more substantive disagreements. This makes it harder to use the primary as a direct roadmap to what the candidates' liabilities might be in the fall.

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor

The biggest downballot race in California is its U.S. Senate contest. Although 27 candidates filed for the race to fill the seat of the late Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein — who died last fall — the four leading contenders are Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, plus Republican Steve Garvey, a former Major League Baseball player. The front-runner appears to be Schiff, who is polling at around 25 percent in 538's California primary polling average. This puts him just a bit ahead of Garvey and Porter, who are right around 20 percent for the coveted second spot. Behind them is Lee, who is polling just under 10 percent.

The race has largely centered on Schiff and Porter, both of whom are fundraising powerhouses. As of Feb. 14, Schiff had brought in $29.8 million in net contributions, while Porter had collected $16.7 million, putting them each well ahead of Lee ($4.8 million) and Garvey ($2.1 million). The two leading Democrats also brought over huge sums left over from their House accounts — $21 million for Schiff and $7.4 million for Porter.

In the final weeks, Schiff has tried to use his massive campaign war chest to push Garvey into second place. Schiff has run ads that attack Garvey for his conservative views and past support for Trump, but the spots intend to raise Garvey's profile among Republican voters. By doing that, Schiff could help Garvey consolidate the GOP vote and finish ahead of Porter, relieving Schiff of a demanding general election campaign against the fellow Democrat. A pro-cryptocurrency super PAC may also help Schiff out, after swooping in with $10 million in outside spending seeking to derail Porter.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538