ABC News projects that Brandon Gill will be the Republican nominee in Texas's 26th Congressional District. Because this district is solidly red, that means he is extremely likely to be the seat's next representative, succeeding the retiring Michael Burgess. Gill is a proud member of the MAGA wing of the party; he was endorsed by Trump and is also the son-in-law of conservative political commentator Dinesh D'Souza, who made the documentary "2000 Mules," which falsely alleges voter fraud in the 2020 election.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Here are a few more projections from our colleagues at the ABC News decision desk:

- In California's 40th District, a swing seat, Republican Rep. Young Kim will face off against Democrat Joe Kerr in November.

- In Alabama's 2nd District, Democrats Shomari Figures and Anthony Daniels will advance to an April 16 runoff, the winner of which will be favored to win this newly drawn seat in November.

- In North Carolina's 6th District, Republicans Addison McDowell and Mark Walker will advance to a May 14 runoff. The winner will be virtually guaranteed to be heading to Congress next year, as this district was recently redrawn to be safely Republican.

- In California's 20th District (Kevin McCarthy's old seat), Republican Vince Fong will be one of the candidates advancing to the November general election. His opponent is still TBD.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

As my colleagues have already noted, the Republican primary is essentially over. But Haley's Vermont victory is the first time a Republican woman will win a state's presidential primary. (She also won the primary in D.C.) So, check a box for a broken record. But I had my eye on Republican and Democratic women in downballot races tonight, and overall it looks like Republican women without their party's or Trump's endorsement struggled to win in places where they have a good chance of winning in November. An exception is in North Carolina's 1st District, where wealthy business owner Laurie Buckhout is the projected winner. That seat will be tight contest in November. As of writing this, Democratic women are looking to be doing well in safely blue districts, like California's 12th and 29th, and Texas's 32nd. But tonight's results suggests the senators from California will both be men, after decades of female leadership in those seats. I'll continue to watch women's progress in both parties for 538, to identify trends and whether more records will be broken.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

The presidential primaries are, for all intents and purposes, over. That means we can finally shift our focus to the primaries that are going to have the most impact on the outcome in November, in the House and Senate. Tonight we saw the first of those contests, and they did not disappoint. In Alabama, an appropriator, Rep. Jerry Carl, lost to a firebrand colleague, Barry Moore, in a member versus member primary. (Let's see what that does to morale in the GOP conference.) In California, Adam Schiff successfully engineered an uncompetitive general election against Republican Steve Garvey, freeing up tens of millions in small donor dollars for races elsewhere around the country. In North Carolina, a bevy of upcoming runoffs will help determine what shape the next House GOP conference takes. And in Texas, we're going to find out in the 23rd District just how much deviation from party orthodoxy is tolerated, when Tony Gonzales faces the music for his votes on a gun bill (negotiated by the state's own senior GOP senator!). Presidential season may be over, but the fun is just beginning.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

The biggest downballot race in California is its U.S. Senate contest. Although 27 candidates filed for the race to fill the seat of the late Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein — who died last fall — the four leading contenders are Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, plus Republican Steve Garvey, a former Major League Baseball player. The front-runner appears to be Schiff, who is polling at around 25 percent in 538's California primary polling average. This puts him just a bit ahead of Garvey and Porter, who are right around 20 percent for the coveted second spot. Behind them is Lee, who is polling just under 10 percent.

The race has largely centered on Schiff and Porter, both of whom are fundraising powerhouses. As of Feb. 14, Schiff had brought in $29.8 million in net contributions, while Porter had collected $16.7 million, putting them each well ahead of Lee ($4.8 million) and Garvey ($2.1 million). The two leading Democrats also brought over huge sums left over from their House accounts — $21 million for Schiff and $7.4 million for Porter.

In the final weeks, Schiff has tried to use his massive campaign war chest to push Garvey into second place. Schiff has run ads that attack Garvey for his conservative views and past support for Trump, but the spots intend to raise Garvey's profile among Republican voters. By doing that, Schiff could help Garvey consolidate the GOP vote and finish ahead of Porter, relieving Schiff of a demanding general election campaign against the fellow Democrat. A pro-cryptocurrency super PAC may also help Schiff out, after swooping in with $10 million in outside spending seeking to derail Porter.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538