Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out

538 tracked how Trump and Haley did, plus key U.S. House and Senate races.

March 5 was Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! With former President Donald Trump projected to win 14 of the day's 15 GOP presidential nominating contests, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley announced Wednesday morning that she is suspending her campaign.

It was also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas.

538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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More runoffs projected in Texas, North Carolina

Catching up on some ABC News race projections that we missed earlier:

- In the Republican primary for North Carolina's 13th District, ABC News projects that Kelly Daughtry and Brad Knott will advance to a May 14 runoff. This is currently a Democratic-held seat, but the GOP legislature redrew it to be safely Republican, so whoever wins the runoff should be a shoo-in in November.

- In the Republican primary for Texas's 12th District, ABC News projects that Craig Goldman and John O'Shea will advance to a May 28 runoff. This is a solidly red open seat currently represented by retiring Rep. Kay Granger.

- And a bit of a surprise in the Republican primary for Texas's 23rd District: incumbent Rep. Tony Gonzales garnered just 45 percent of the vote, forcing him into a runoff with second-place finisher Brandon Herrera. Gonzales was censured by the Texas GOP last year for supporting bipartisan gun legislation in the wake of the shooting in Uvalde, which is in his district. Clearly, the GOP base is still not happy with him.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Several incumbents ousted in the Texas state House

As we explained yesterday, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Trump all set out to defeat several incumbent Republicans in the Texas state House yesterday (albeit for different reasons). The Associated Press has now projected winners in most of those races, and here's how they turned out: In total, at least eight Republican incumbents lost their primaries after being targeted by one of those three men. Another seven, including Speaker Dade Phelan, were forced into runoffs.

Abbott's muscle looks like it was the most effective: Five of the 10 incumbents he targeted (over their opposition to his school-voucher plan) lost, and another three went to runoffs. Trump also did OK: Two of the eight incumbents he targeted lost, and three more went to runoffs. Paxton didn't have as high of a success rate: Only seven of the 35 incumbents he targeted lost, although seven more were forced into runoffs. That's maybe not too surprising, though, since unlike Abbott, Paxton didn't put a ton of money where his mouth was.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Dean Phillips suspends his campaign, endorses Biden

Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips ended his campaign for president today and endorsed Biden's reelection campaign. Phillips got into the race last fall, citing Democratic worries about Biden's age and ability to beat Trump. But his campaign never took off, even in New Hampshire, where he focused much of his efforts because Biden wasn't on the ballot due to the state's primary having violated the national Democrats' new calendar rules. Phillips won 20 percent of the New Hampshire vote, but he didn't clear 10 percent in any other state where he got on the ballot. Yesterday, he earned 8 percent in his home state of Minnesota and 9 percent in Oklahoma, his best showings otherwise.

Although some Democrats share Phillips's concerns about Biden, Phillips predictably struggled because the incumbent president remains relatively well-liked by those in his party. Phillips was an unusual primary challenger in that he didn't have sizable ideological disagreements with Biden that stoked his run — the moderate congressman was not from the Bernie Sanders wing of the party, for instance. And Phillips's overall performance reflects the lack of appetite for a center-left alternative to Biden — who hails from that part of the party — or at least one who didn't already have a sizable standing. Rather, the intraparty dissatisfaction with Biden has been felt more on the left, which has been especially critical of Biden's handling of the Israel-Gaza situation. (See: the "Uncommitted" protest movement getting more votes than Phillips in his home state.) Tellingly, Marianne Williamson's minor left-wing campaign has actually won more votes than Phillips in 10 of the 15 primaries they both participated in.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


All incumbent Republicans lose in the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals primaries

As Nathaniel mentioned yesterday, in 2022, eight Republican judges on the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals ruled that the attorney general cannot prosecute election-related cases without the participation or permission of a local prosecutor, a decision that upset Attorney General Paxton, Trump, and Gov. Abbott. Last night, three of those incumbents were up for reelection, and all three faced primary challengers endorsed by Paxton, Trump and Abbott. According to the Associated Press, with over 95 percent of the expected vote reported, all three appear to have lost to their primary challengers: Presiding Judge Sharon Keller is losing 37 percent to 63 percent to appellate lawyer David Schenck, Judge Barbara Parker Hervey is losing 34 to 66 percent to former Assistant District Attorney and businesswoman Gina Parker, and Judge Michelle Slaughter is losing 46 to 54 percent to criminal lawyer Lee Finley.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


Adam Schiff is hoping to effectively end California's Senate race tonight

The biggest downballot race in California is its U.S. Senate contest. Although 27 candidates filed for the race to fill the seat of the late Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein — who died last fall — the four leading contenders are Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, plus Republican Steve Garvey, a former Major League Baseball player. The front-runner appears to be Schiff, who is polling at around 25 percent in 538's California primary polling average. This puts him just a bit ahead of Garvey and Porter, who are right around 20 percent for the coveted second spot. Behind them is Lee, who is polling just under 10 percent.

The race has largely centered on Schiff and Porter, both of whom are fundraising powerhouses. As of Feb. 14, Schiff had brought in $29.8 million in net contributions, while Porter had collected $16.7 million, putting them each well ahead of Lee ($4.8 million) and Garvey ($2.1 million). The two leading Democrats also brought over huge sums left over from their House accounts — $21 million for Schiff and $7.4 million for Porter.

In the final weeks, Schiff has tried to use his massive campaign war chest to push Garvey into second place. Schiff has run ads that attack Garvey for his conservative views and past support for Trump, but the spots intend to raise Garvey's profile among Republican voters. By doing that, Schiff could help Garvey consolidate the GOP vote and finish ahead of Porter, relieving Schiff of a demanding general election campaign against the fellow Democrat. A pro-cryptocurrency super PAC may also help Schiff out, after swooping in with $10 million in outside spending seeking to derail Porter.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538