I've already gone on about Phillips a bit tonight, but I think it's interesting that he tried to challenge Biden from the center, or mostly on the basis of personal characteristics. This feels notable because Biden's major weakness would seem to be from the left. But the main vehicle for opposition votes to Biden has been the "uncommitted" movement — not a specific candidate. This might be because the progressive wing of the party doesn't have a younger and agreed-upon candidate yet, or because they see Biden as the best realistic bet for achieving some of their policy goals.

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor

As Monica just noted, about the only drama in the presidential primary contests tonight can be found in Vermont, where Haley actually might defeat Trump in a traditional, state-run primary (unlike the party-run primary she won in Washington, D.C., over the weekend).

So, what's going on in Vermont? Fundamentally, the Republican primary electorate just isn't as conservative in Vermont. I've been using the 2016 Republican nomination race as a back-of-the-napkin guide to the makeup of the GOP electorate this year, and it's been useful. At this point, we could split the GOP into two parts: those who voted for Trump, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson, who tend to make up the Trumpier part of the GOP now; and those who backed Marco Rubio and John Kasich, who aren't as inclined to back Trump. Looking at how the Super Tuesday states voted in 2016, you'll notice that Vermont is the only state voting today in which the combined vote share for Rubio and Kasich outdistanced the Trump, Cruz and Carson cohort.

Back in 2016, the types of voters who backed Rubio and Kasich tended to be more moderate and more likely to hold a four-year college degree. In that sense, they attracted parts of the GOP coalition (and beyond) that make up much of Haley's coalition this year. As we already discussed, some Democratic-leaning voters may have helped Haley in every contest, and Vermont happens to also be a very blue state full of those voters.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

With Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz projected to win his primary — he's got 89 percent of the votes counted so far — the question becomes whether he will face as tough a race in November as he did back in 2018. Six years ago, he beat Beto O'Rourke by just 2.6 percentage points, raising questions about whether Democrats could actually win a statewide federal race in the Lone Star State. But recently, his approval rating has notched up after being underwater for much of 2021 and 2022. On the Democratic side, Colin Allred is winning 62 percent of the Democratic vote with just over half the expected vote in.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 Contributor

In the Democratic primary for the Texas’s 15th Congressional District, Michelle Vallejo is leading with 32 percent of the expected vote in. She ran unsuccessfully for the seat in the 2022 midterms, but she’s leading her opponent, John Villarreal Rigney, 73 percent to 27 percent, according to The New York Times. Villarreal Rigney tried to run as the more conservative candidate, but Vallejo has the endorsement of much of the Democratic establishment and the pro-Israel group, Democratic Majority for Israel, or DMFI. AIPAC has endorsed her Republican opponent, the current incumbent, Rep. Monica de la Cruz. If Democrats can flip any seat in Texas, this is a likely one, making this race potentially competitive in November. Both AIPAC and DMFI have invested on the Democratic side to try to fend of progressive, anti-war challengers in Congress.

—Monica Potts, 538

The biggest downballot race in California is its U.S. Senate contest. Although 27 candidates filed for the race to fill the seat of the late Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein — who died last fall — the four leading contenders are Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, plus Republican Steve Garvey, a former Major League Baseball player. The front-runner appears to be Schiff, who is polling at around 25 percent in 538's California primary polling average. This puts him just a bit ahead of Garvey and Porter, who are right around 20 percent for the coveted second spot. Behind them is Lee, who is polling just under 10 percent.

The race has largely centered on Schiff and Porter, both of whom are fundraising powerhouses. As of Feb. 14, Schiff had brought in $29.8 million in net contributions, while Porter had collected $16.7 million, putting them each well ahead of Lee ($4.8 million) and Garvey ($2.1 million). The two leading Democrats also brought over huge sums left over from their House accounts — $21 million for Schiff and $7.4 million for Porter.

In the final weeks, Schiff has tried to use his massive campaign war chest to push Garvey into second place. Schiff has run ads that attack Garvey for his conservative views and past support for Trump, but the spots intend to raise Garvey's profile among Republican voters. By doing that, Schiff could help Garvey consolidate the GOP vote and finish ahead of Porter, relieving Schiff of a demanding general election campaign against the fellow Democrat. A pro-cryptocurrency super PAC may also help Schiff out, after swooping in with $10 million in outside spending seeking to derail Porter.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538