ABC News projects that Brandon Gill will be the Republican nominee in Texas's 26th Congressional District. Because this district is solidly red, that means he is extremely likely to be the seat's next representative, succeeding the retiring Michael Burgess. Gill is a proud member of the MAGA wing of the party; he was endorsed by Trump and is also the son-in-law of conservative political commentator Dinesh D'Souza, who made the documentary "2000 Mules," which falsely alleges voter fraud in the 2020 election.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Here are a few more projections from our colleagues at the ABC News decision desk:

- In California's 40th District, a swing seat, Republican Rep. Young Kim will face off against Democrat Joe Kerr in November.

- In Alabama's 2nd District, Democrats Shomari Figures and Anthony Daniels will advance to an April 16 runoff, the winner of which will be favored to win this newly drawn seat in November.

- In North Carolina's 6th District, Republicans Addison McDowell and Mark Walker will advance to a May 14 runoff. The winner will be virtually guaranteed to be heading to Congress next year, as this district was recently redrawn to be safely Republican.

- In California's 20th District (Kevin McCarthy's old seat), Republican Vince Fong will be one of the candidates advancing to the November general election. His opponent is still TBD.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

As my colleagues have already noted, the Republican primary is essentially over. But Haley's Vermont victory is the first time a Republican woman will win a state's presidential primary. (She also won the primary in D.C.) So, check a box for a broken record. But I had my eye on Republican and Democratic women in downballot races tonight, and overall it looks like Republican women without their party's or Trump's endorsement struggled to win in places where they have a good chance of winning in November. An exception is in North Carolina's 1st District, where wealthy business owner Laurie Buckhout is the projected winner. That seat will be tight contest in November. As of writing this, Democratic women are looking to be doing well in safely blue districts, like California's 12th and 29th, and Texas's 32nd. But tonight's results suggests the senators from California will both be men, after decades of female leadership in those seats. I'll continue to watch women's progress in both parties for 538, to identify trends and whether more records will be broken.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

The presidential primaries are, for all intents and purposes, over. That means we can finally shift our focus to the primaries that are going to have the most impact on the outcome in November, in the House and Senate. Tonight we saw the first of those contests, and they did not disappoint. In Alabama, an appropriator, Rep. Jerry Carl, lost to a firebrand colleague, Barry Moore, in a member versus member primary. (Let's see what that does to morale in the GOP conference.) In California, Adam Schiff successfully engineered an uncompetitive general election against Republican Steve Garvey, freeing up tens of millions in small donor dollars for races elsewhere around the country. In North Carolina, a bevy of upcoming runoffs will help determine what shape the next House GOP conference takes. And in Texas, we're going to find out in the 23rd District just how much deviation from party orthodoxy is tolerated, when Tony Gonzales faces the music for his votes on a gun bill (negotiated by the state's own senior GOP senator!). Presidential season may be over, but the fun is just beginning.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Julia, I'm suspicious that the reason Trump's lead in primary polling has been somewhat exaggerated is that pollsters are not necessarily capturing some of the independents who are showing up to vote in a GOP primary. As Nate Cohn recently pointed out in The New York Times, some pollsters have filtered for likely GOP primary voters by mostly or only looking at voters who've voted in Republican primaries. But a fair number of independents, including Democratic-leaning ones, wouldn't necessarily fall in that category. But with Biden a lock to win the Democratic nomination — barring something happening outside of the voting booth — Democratic-leaning voters have only one race to get involved in. Although we know there aren't that many "cross-over" voters who participate in the opposing party's primary, some high-propensity Democratic voters and some Democratic-leaning independents have probably voted in states that allow non-Republicans to cast ballots in the GOP primary.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538