Texas Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw has long had a bit of a fractious relationship with the more extreme members of his party. He was one of just a few Republicans to vote to certify Biden's election in 2020, and he's often feuded with fellow Republican, Georgia's Marjorie Taylor Greene. Though he's been a reliable vote against the Biden agenda and is backing Trump again, co-hosting a fundraiser for the former president, he's clearly not alright with the base.

With about 73 percent of the vote reporting, he leads his conservative challenger Jameson Ellis by just 17 points. That might seem like a lot, but consider that just two years ago, Crenshaw also faced Ellis in the 2022 GOP primary and defeated him by a much wider 58-point margin.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee is projected to win the Democratic primary in Texas's 18th District, fending off a challenge from former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards. Jackson Lee lost a bit of steam in her congressional campaign by running for Houston mayor last year, a race she lost. But after jumping back into her reelection bid, she has managed to edge out the young upstart challenger in Edwards, all but guaranteeing her another term in this deep-blue district.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

I don't doubt that there are parts of the GOP electorate this cycle that are hard to capture, and they may well be Democratic-leaning independents or just straight up Democrats. But equally importantly, we should keep in mind that primary polls are the most prone to error of all the kinds of election polls out there. And actually, outside of Michigan, the polls have been well within the 8 to 10 percentage points of average primary polling error we should expect.

—Galen Druke, 538

ABC News is projecting that Biden and Trump will win their respective presidential primaries in Texas, as will Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, who Democrats are angling to unseat this fall. The race for the Democratic Senate nomination in Texas is hot, though as I mentioned earlier, the front-runner is Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL player and civil rights attorney who has represented the Dallas area since 2019.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

As I mentioned earlier, 2018 was a watershed year for political ambition among Democratic women. Not only did Democratic women run in record numbers in 2018, they also outperformed Democratic men in their primaries. And in November of that cycle, female candidates were responsible for more than 60 percent of the congressional seats that flipped from red to blue. That year was a nail in the "women aren't electable" coffin.

There are a few Democratic women running tonight who are vying to do just that once again.

In southern California's 40th District, which spans parts of Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, engineer Allyson Muñiz Damikolas is hoping to face Republican incumbent Young Kim in November. Kim herself was one of the few Republican women who won in 2020 when she flipped California's 39th District by less than 5,000 votes Due to redistricting, Kim ran in the 40th District in 2022, where she won by a much larger margin. Still, this region of California is in flux demographically and politically, so it makes sense as a target for Democrats. EMILY's List is backing Muñiz Damikolas, but to advance to November, she'll need to get past fellow Democrat, retired fire Capt. Joe Kerr, first, who has been endorsed by the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC.

Next, in Texas's 15th District, small business owner Michelle Vallejo is favored to advance tonight to a rematch against Republican incumbent Rep. Monica De La Cruz. Vallejo, who has endorsements from EMILY's List and the DCCC, lost by nearly nine percentage points in 2022, but Democratic groups have invested more in the race this time around as a top pickup opportunity. And in California's 3rd District, wildfire specialist Jessica Morse is running to face the Republican incumbent, Rep. Kevin Kiley. Morse is endorsed by EMILY's List, but not the DCCC. She and Kiley are likely to advance out of today's top-two primary, which includes a third-party candidate.

In addition to these, there are several bluer districts with incumbent-less primaries today where Democratic women will be competitive:

- Rep. Colin Allred is running for Senate, opening his seat in Texas's 32nd District. State Rep. Julie Johnson has support from EMILY's List and seems to be one of the top two candidates in a crowded Democratic primary.

- Rep. Tony Cárdenas announced his retirement in his blue San Fernando Valley district (California's 29th). Luz Maria Rivas, who has support from EMILY's List and the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, should finish in the top two today.

- Rep. Barbara Lee isn't running for reelection in California's 12th District, instead vying for the Senate. Organizer and civil rights activist Lateefah Simon is a clear front-runner. She has Lee's endorsement, as well as Gov. Newsom's, and backing from EMILY's List.

- Rep. Anna Eshoo announced her retirement after three decades in Congress, opening up California's 16th District. EMILY's List is backing former Stanford dean Julie Lythcott-Haims, but she's caught in a tight race with four other strong candidates who have her beat on the spending front.

- Rep. Katie Porter is also running for Senate instead of reelection in California's 47th District. Lawyer Joanna Weiss, who has an endorsement from EMILY's List, looks to be in a contentious race with state Sen. Dave Min to become the Democratic flagbearer this fall.

Given that Lee, Eshoo and Porter are women and not all of today's female candidates are favored to advance, today's races mainly give Democratic women a chance to maintain the progress they've made in recent cycles.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor