While we're on the topic of Vermont politics (and books), I can't recommend Frank Bryan's book Real Democracy highly enough. Over decades, Bryan sent college students to attend town meetings throughout Vermont, where local residents make key decisions in a form of direct democracy that's uncommon elsewhere. The product is a highly readable book with plenty of local color about direct democracy in Vermont's towns.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

Ha, Jacob, to that point: If anyone is interested in some Vermont political history, here are a couple recs from someone who recently moved to the state (me). There's "The Star That Set: The Vermont Republican Party, 1854-1974," which lays out the rise and dominance of the GOP in Vermont, then its decline in the latter half of the 20th century as the state became two-party competitive. And "Philip Hoff: How Red Turned Blue in the Green Mountain State" investigates the changes in Vermont during the 1960s that surrounded Democratic Gov. Philip Hoff, the first Democrat to win Vermont's governorship after the Civil War. (This ends the Vermont Book Club portion of the evening.)

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

ABC News projects North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson to be the Republican nominee for Governor in the state. This was the outcome that was widely expected, as Robinson had been leading the race. It's expected that he'll square off against state Attorney General Josh Stein, who is leading the Democratic primary, and it looks like it'll be a competitive race. If you're not familiar with Robinson, he first gained attention in 2018 when a video of him speaking at a Greensboro City Council meeting in support of gun rights went viral. In 2020, he was elected as Lieutenant Governor, the state's first Black Lieutenant Governor, and he has been a controversial figure.

A devout Christian, Robinson stays true to his roots by tending toward impassioned, sermon-style speeches. However, those speeches have often veered into inflammatory and bigoted language, particularly towards the LGBTQ+ community. As recently as February, he said that transgender women should be arrested for using the bathroom corresponding to their gender identity and suggested they "go outside." He has said straight couples are "superior" to gay couples, that "God made him issues, and that anyone in the GOP who doesn't support him will face God's "vengeance.". Suffice to say, he's a controversial figure, not unlike the party's leader, and will represent a significant shift in North Carolina state politics if he's elected to the governor's mansion this November.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Yeah, Mary, I suspected we might see a sizable polling error or two! Polling presidential primaries is really hard — this century, presidential primary polls have missed the mark by an average of 9 points. And with just one poll in Vermont over the past month, we were putting a lot of eggs in one polling basket.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

As I mentioned earlier, 2018 was a watershed year for political ambition among Democratic women. Not only did Democratic women run in record numbers in 2018, they also outperformed Democratic men in their primaries. And in November of that cycle, female candidates were responsible for more than 60 percent of the congressional seats that flipped from red to blue. That year was a nail in the "women aren't electable" coffin.

There are a few Democratic women running tonight who are vying to do just that once again.

In southern California's 40th District, which spans parts of Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, engineer Allyson Muñiz Damikolas is hoping to face Republican incumbent Young Kim in November. Kim herself was one of the few Republican women who won in 2020 when she flipped California's 39th District by less than 5,000 votes Due to redistricting, Kim ran in the 40th District in 2022, where she won by a much larger margin. Still, this region of California is in flux demographically and politically, so it makes sense as a target for Democrats. EMILY's List is backing Muñiz Damikolas, but to advance to November, she'll need to get past fellow Democrat, retired fire Capt. Joe Kerr, first, who has been endorsed by the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC.

Next, in Texas's 15th District, small business owner Michelle Vallejo is favored to advance tonight to a rematch against Republican incumbent Rep. Monica De La Cruz. Vallejo, who has endorsements from EMILY's List and the DCCC, lost by nearly nine percentage points in 2022, but Democratic groups have invested more in the race this time around as a top pickup opportunity. And in California's 3rd District, wildfire specialist Jessica Morse is running to face the Republican incumbent, Rep. Kevin Kiley. Morse is endorsed by EMILY's List, but not the DCCC. She and Kiley are likely to advance out of today's top-two primary, which includes a third-party candidate.

In addition to these, there are several bluer districts with incumbent-less primaries today where Democratic women will be competitive:

- Rep. Colin Allred is running for Senate, opening his seat in Texas's 32nd District. State Rep. Julie Johnson has support from EMILY's List and seems to be one of the top two candidates in a crowded Democratic primary.

- Rep. Tony Cárdenas announced his retirement in his blue San Fernando Valley district (California's 29th). Luz Maria Rivas, who has support from EMILY's List and the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, should finish in the top two today.

- Rep. Barbara Lee isn't running for reelection in California's 12th District, instead vying for the Senate. Organizer and civil rights activist Lateefah Simon is a clear front-runner. She has Lee's endorsement, as well as Gov. Newsom's, and backing from EMILY's List.

- Rep. Anna Eshoo announced her retirement after three decades in Congress, opening up California's 16th District. EMILY's List is backing former Stanford dean Julie Lythcott-Haims, but she's caught in a tight race with four other strong candidates who have her beat on the spending front.

- Rep. Katie Porter is also running for Senate instead of reelection in California's 47th District. Lawyer Joanna Weiss, who has an endorsement from EMILY's List, looks to be in a contentious race with state Sen. Dave Min to become the Democratic flagbearer this fall.

Given that Lee, Eshoo and Porter are women and not all of today's female candidates are favored to advance, today's races mainly give Democratic women a chance to maintain the progress they've made in recent cycles.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor